Updated at 2:54 p.m. Monday, February 13, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023Valid 00Z Tue Feb 14 2023 – 00Z Thu Feb 16 2023
…The recent series of strong upper lows affecting the Lower 48 will
continue over the next two days with active weather across much of the
western to central U.S…..Blizzard conditions possible across portions of the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, while heavy
snows are likely through the higher terrain of the west into the Central
High Plains……A sharp temperature contrast across the Lower 48 with much below
average temperatures across the west and much above average temperatures
from the central to eastern U.S…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
To read the Updated ENSO Outlook, Click HERE There are two very interesting articles on ENSO in that article that you can click on. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
The parade of strong mid to upper level closed lows to affect large
portions of the nation will continue over the next few days. The next
strong closed upper low will be ejecting out of the Southwest tonight and
into the Southern to Central Plains on Tuesday. Low level southerly flow
is expected to strengthen off the western Gulf of Mexico ahead of this
northeastward moving closed low. This will increase moisture values to
above average levels across much of the Plains, Mississippi Valley and
into the Great Lakes, supporting increasing chances of widespread
precipitation across these regions. At the same time, a surface low will
also be deepening late Tuesday into early Wednesday across the Upper
Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes region. Most of this
precipitation associated with this first northeastward moving upper low is
expected to be in the form of rain, except for eastern portions of the
Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley where snowfall is
expected. The overall quick movement of this system will keep
precipitation amounts, both rain and snow, from being very heavy.
Subsequently, there is not expected to be a flash flood threat for areas
receiving rainfall. While snowfall totals on the northern end of this
system are not expected to be very heavy, the increasing winds from the
deepening surface low may produce blizzard conditions late Tuesday into
early Wednesday over eastern portions of the Northern Plains into the
Upper Mississippi Valley.In the wake of the first strong upper low ejecting northeastward across
the Plains/Mississippi Valley, the next in the series of strong upper lows
will dive southeast from the Pacific Northwest, through the Great Basin
and into the Southwest on Tuesday and then eastward into the Southern
Plains during Wednesday. This system will have the potential to produce
heavy snows in the Washington and Oregon Cascades, across the Mogollon Rim
region of Arizona, through much of the Rockies and into the Central High
Plains over the next 2 days. Winter storm watches, warnings and
advisories are currently in effect across all of these region. In addition
to the heavy snow threat across the above mentioned regions, temperatures
will be falling to 10 to 20 degrees below average from the high plains,
westward through the Rockies and into the Great Basin. In contrast to
this, much above average temperatures are expected over the next two days
from the Plains, eastward to the east coast. High temperatures across
these areas are expected to run anywhere from 10 to 30 degrees above
average.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
|
|
|
| 8
– 14 |
|
|
| 3
– 4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
