Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 12, 2023

Updated at 3:53 p.m. Sunday, February 12, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 13 2023 – 00Z Wed Feb 15 2023

…Unsettled weather will expand across the West through the next couple
of days with heavy mountain snows over the Four-Corners and along the
Cascades…

…A low pressure system will trigger an expanding area of showers and
thunderstorms over the Central/Southern Plains Monday night into Tuesday…

…Unseasonably mild and mostly tranquil weather for the eastern half of
the country to start the week…

Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.

To read the Updated ENSO Outlook, Click HERE There are two very interesting articles on ENSO in that article that you can click on. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways.

First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)

Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE

TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)

TOMORROW

NEXT DAY

This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.

ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS

This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.

Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.

A significant change in the weather pattern is forecast for the next
couple of days in the western U.S. with the simultaneous arrival of two
storm systems. One system currently moving through the Southwest will
spread locally heavy mountain snows (12″+) across the Four-Corners region
Sunday night into Monday before emerging into the Southern Plains Monday
night into Tuesday. Some light to moderate rain and a few thunderstorms
are also expected for lower elevation/valley locations of the Desert
Southwest and Southern Rockies. To the north, another system will bring
mountain snows and lower elevation rains to the Pacific Northwest later
Sunday and will expand into the Intermountain West on Monday, followed by
the northern Rockies by Monday night. Heavy snow totals over a foot are
possible for higher elevations in the regional mountain ranges here as
well, especially for the Cascades. As the southern system departs into the
Plains, the northern system will press southward, helping to continue
higher elevation snow/lower elevation rain chances for the Great Basin,
Rockies, and Southwest Tuesday. Mostly seasonable highs on Monday outside
of the rain-cooled Desert Southwest will turn much cooler Tuesday as well.
Highs will be in the 20s and 30s for the Great Basin/Rockies, 40s for the
Pacific Northwest, 50s for most of California, and the low to mid-60s for
the Desert Southwest. Strong, gusty winds are also expected along portions
of coastal California as well as the Sierra and adjacent desert locations.

Upper level ridging will move over the center of the country ahead of the
systems in the West Monday, leading to dry and unseasonably mild
conditions. High temperatures will be running 10-20 degrees above average,
with highs in the 30s and 40s for the Northern Plains, 40s and 50s for the
Northern High Plains and Central Plains east into the Ohio Valley, and 60s
and 70s for the Southern Plains. The southern system over the West moving
into the Southern High Plains late Monday into Tuesday will trigger
strong, gusty winds as high as 55-65 mph. Showers will develop ahead of
the system moving through the Central/Southern Plains and eventually into
the Mississippi Valley. Some thunderstorms will also be possible,
especially for the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. A light
wintry mix of snow, sleet, and a glaze of freezing rain will be possible
over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest as the northern system over the
West also begins to move into the Plains Tuesday. Much colder, arctic air
will begin to push southward across the region later in the day Tuesday
following the passage of a cold front with temperatures plummeting into
the teens and 20s. Some accumulating snowfall may begin to overspread
portions of the Northern High Plains as the threat for more impactful
winter weather will ramp up for the region heading into mid-week.

A low pressure system responsible for the dreary weather for the
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic and winter weather in the Appalachians will move
off the East Coast early Monday. The rain and higher elevation snow is
expected to taper off from west to east later Sunday as gusty winds from
the north subside. Temperatures will quickly rebound across the region as
most of the eastern half of the country sees unseasonably mild weather
similar to the Plains. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will range between the
30s and 40s for the Interior Northeast/New England/Upper Great Lakes, the
50s and 60s for the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic, and the
60s and 70s for the Southeast. Highs look to remain mild into the mid/late
week beyond the current forecast period, especially along the East Coast.
Otherwise, a weak disturbance moving through the Interior Northeast may
trigger some light wintry precipitation late Monday evening into Tuesday
morning.

Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)

Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.

Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.

Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1)	Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2)	Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov /produ cts/pre dictions/610day/	https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/	https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.

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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.

Month to Date Information

Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png

World Forecast

Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE

This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.

Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)

This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-

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I hope you found this article interesting and useful.