Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2023Valid 00Z Sun Feb 12 2023 – 00Z Tue Feb 14 2023
…Wet and dreary end to the weekend for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic;
snow, sleet, and freezing rain for the Appalachians……Multiple areas of unsettled weather for the West beginning Sunday with
heavy snow for the Cascades……Unseasonably mild weather for the center of the country; Elevated Risk
of Fire Weather for the Southern High Plains Sunday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
To read the Updated ENSO Outlook, Click HERE There are two very interesting articles on ENSO in that article that you can click on. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways.
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First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Precipiation and overall dreary weather will continue to expand across the
Southeast and northward into the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic to end the
weekend as a low pressure system pushes up the East Coast. Showers and
some embedded thunderstorms will produce moderate to locally heavy
rainfall, with areal average totals through early Monday between 1-2″.
Cooler air sinking southward along the Appalachians will lead to a heavy
wintry mix late Saturday night through the day Sunday for portions of the
southern and central Appalachians. Winter weather-related advisories are
in effect for sleet and snow accumulations generally between 1-4″ as well
as a glaze to a 0.1″ of ice accretions from freezing rain. Locally higher
snow totals upwards of 10″ will be possible for higher elevations along
the Tennessee/North Carolina border. High temperatures will be cool and
below average, with 50s for the Southeast and the Florida
Panhandle/northern Peninsula and 40s for the Piedmont into the
Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will rapidly warm back up on Monday as the
system departs into the Atlantic, with highs in the 60s forecast.Two weather systems will move into the West late Sunday with a split
stream flow regime in place. Lower elevation coastal/valley rain and
mountain snow will overspread the Pacific Northwest and portions of the
Northern Rockies Monday. Snow totals between 2-4″, locally 4-8″, are
forecast for the Blue Mountains of Oregon and additional ranges in the
Northern Rockies of Idaho/Montana. Heavier snow is expected in the
Cascades with totals between 8-12″, locally 18″+. A second system will
move through the Southwest and Southern Rockies bringing light to moderate
rain showers to the valleys and a few inches of snow for higher mountain
elevations. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will generally be close to
average across most of the West, with 40s to low 50s for the Pacific
Northwest, 30s and 40s for the Rockies and Great Basin, and 60s in
California. Temperatures in the 70s for the Desert Southwest on Sunday
will drop into the 50s Monday as the southern system passes through.Upper level ridging will move over the center of the country between the
systems in the East and West, leading to dry and unseasonably mild
conditions. High temperatures will be running 10-20 degrees above average,
with highs in the 30s and 40s for the Northern Plains/Great Lakes, 40s and
50s for the Central Plains east into the Ohio Valley, and 60s and 70s for
the Southern Plains. Highs will warm up into the 50s and low 60s for the
Northern and Central High Plains Monday as downsloping winds east of the
Rockies set in. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an Elevated Risk
of Fire Weather for portions of the Southern High Plains Sunday where the
warm temperatures will combine with dry antecedent conditions and gustier
winds due to a weak front/trough triggered by an embedded shortwave in the
flow aloft. The southern system over the West will begin to move into the
Southern High Plains Monday, bringing cooler temperatures and increased
rain chances later in the evening.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
