Updated at 3:33 p.m. EST Friday, February 10, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2023Valid 00Z Sat Feb 11 2023 – 00Z Mon Feb 13 2023
…Mixed precipitation and heavy snow over northern Maine today will
gradually taper off tonight……Heavy rain, strengthening winds, and possibly severe thunderstorms are
expected to expand across the Southeast on Saturday……Heavy wet snow, sleet and some freezing rain is expected to develop
near/over the central and southern Appalachians Saturday night into Sunday
morning…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
To read the Updated ENSO Oulook, Click HERE There are two very interesting articles on ENSO in that article that you can click on. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways.
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First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A low pressure system moving eastward through southern Ontario will
continue to deliver mixed precipitation across northern New England and
heavy snow across northern Maine today. Mixed wintry precipitation is
expected to taper off and change over to light snow by tonight following a
cold frontal passage. Some lake-effect snow is forecast to linger a bit
longer in areas downwind from the lower Great Lakes into Saturday morning
before drier air arrives from the west.To the south of the wintry weather, temperatures have been very warm, with
widespread record high maximum temperatures occurring along the entire
East Coast. Southerly flow ahead of an incoming cold front is ushering in
warm and moist air, creating spring-like conditions across the East Coast.
Much of the East Coast will be noticeably cooler tonight following a cold
frontal passage. However, temperatures will still be above average by
February standards.Meanwhile, a strengthening low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico
will begin to set the stage for increasingly stormy weather across the
Southeast, including some wet snow and/or sleet for portions of the
southern and central Appalachians. Southerly flow aloft will transport
moisture toward the Gulf Coast, and with the primary front expected to
stall over the Gulf, prolonged rain is in store for much of the Southeast.
The initial threat of heavy rain will be confined to the Florida
Panhandle. However, as an upper low moves toward the lower Mississippi
Valley today, moist low level flow will strengthen out of southwest and
south off the central to eastern Gulf of Mexico, supporting an expanding
area of heavy rainfall rates from the central Gulf coast northeastward.
Areas of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, southern Georgia, and southern South Carolina will be wet in the
short term. This is welcome precipitation, as much of this region has seen
average to below average precipitation amounts over the past few weeks.
Dry antecedent soil should help to mitigate some flash flood potential.
However, WPC has issued a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for portions
of the central Florida Panhandle and into far southern Georgia, where high
rainfall rates are currently occurring and storm-total precipitation may
exceed 4-5″.By Saturday evening and into early Sunday, the low pressure system is
forecast to move across northern Florida into the Atlantic Ocean while it
continues to intensify. Heavy rain, strengthening winds, and possibly
severe thunderstorms are expected to expand across the Southeast beginning
on Saturday along with the low pressure system. The Storm Prediction
Center has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the Florida Panhandle on Saturday. The primary threat from these
thunderstorms is expected to be damaging wind gusts.As the system continues to move along the East Coast, heavy wet snow
and/or sleet is expected to develop near/over the central and southern
Appalachians. Given the dynamic nature of this system and the moderate
airmass in place, accumulating snowfall may be limited to the upslope
regions of the Appalachian Mountains, where there is a 50-80% chance of
snow accumulating 4″+. In addition to the snow, warm air aloft will bring
a risk of icing over portions of the interior Mid-Atlantic, particularly
over the central and southern Appalachian Mountains. WPC has issued a
30-50% probability of 0.1″ of ice accretion over northwestern North
Carolina and into southwestern Virginia.A strong storm system is currently pushing southward through northern and
central California today. Despite being a strong system, the track of this
deepening mid to upper level closed low will not be conducive to
significant precipitation across California over the next few days.
Moisture values will remain at or below seasonal averages. Subsequently,
only light to locally moderate precipitation amounts in the .10-.25″+
range expected across northern to central California over the next two
days. This system will settle into the Southwest United States, with more
significant impacts expected in the medium range over the southern and
central Plains.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking h ere Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
