Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed down 11 points or 0.03%,
- Nasdaq closed down 0.76%,
- S&P 500 down 0.40%,
- WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $3.07,
- USD $104.66 up $1.14,
- Gold $1843 up $17.10,
- Bitcoin $16,654 down 0. 42% – Session Low 16,609,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.786% down 0.045
Click here to read our Economic Forecast for January 2023
Today’s Economic Releases:
Construction spending during November 2022 is 8.5% above November 2021. During the first eleven months of this year, construction spending is 10.5% above the same period in 2021. When the data is inflation-adjusted, construction spending contracted 8.8% year-over-year (blue line on graph below).
The NFIB Research Center released the latest COVID-19 survey assessing the impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had on small businesses. Holly Wade, Executive Director of NFIB’s Research Center stated:
The small business economy is recovering from the pandemic, but they continue to manage other economic headwinds. With historic inflation, ongoing staffing shortages, and supply chain disruptions, owners are working hard to get back to pre-crisis economic levels.
Key findings include:
-
- Just over one-third (36%) of small businesses are at or exceeding pre-crisis sales levels, only one percentage point higher than in March 2022.
- Thirty-four percent of small businesses are back or nearly back to where they were with sales 75% – 99% of pre-crisis levels with another 20% at sales levels of 50% – 74% pre-crisis.
- Sales levels are less than 50% of pre-crisis levels for 11% of small businesses.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Europe Faces Difficult Years, But Russia Stands To Lose Energy Showdown
- OPEC Production Creeps Higher In December
- Teslas Rough Start To The Year Just Got Worse As Lithium Supplier Changes Deal
- Home price increases weakened sharply in November, posting the smallest annual gain in 2 years
- As investors shift focus from inflation to growth, Club stocks with China exposure stand to gain
- Feds launch FTX task force to recover victim assets, continue probes as Bankman-Fried pleads not guilty
- The Mega Millions jackpot is $785 million. Taking the lump sum is ‘typically a big mistake,’ lottery lawyer says
- TaxWatch: Brace yourself: Your tax refund could shrink in 2023. Here’s why.
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
The Market in Perspective
Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
Europe Faces Difficult Years, But Russia Stands To Lose Energy ShowdownIn the European Union this winter, fears of rolling blackouts triggered by Russian energy export cuts amid Moscow’s war in Ukraine have subsided thanks to good luck, good weather, and quick action. A warm start to the heating season in October and November enabled the EU to slash natural gas consumption and store more fuel for the winter months. Meanwhile, slumping Chinese demand due to COVID lockdowns allowed liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers bound for Asia to be rerouted to the bloc. EU officials also played a role, encouraging countries Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europe-Faces-Challenging-Couple-Of-Years-But-Russia-Stands-To-Lose-Energy-Showd.html |
|
A New Simple Metal Alloy Found To Be The Toughest MaterialLawrence Berkeley National Lab scientists have measured the highest toughness ever recorded of any material. The discovery came while investigating a metallic alloy made of chromium, cobalt, and nickel. Not only is the metal exceptionally strong and ductile, its properties become enhanced as it gets colder. This runs counter to most other materials in existence. The material, CrCoNi is impressively strong, meaning it resists permanent deformation. The team, led by researchers from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and Oak Ridge Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-New-Simple-Metal-Alloy-Found-To-Be-The-Toughest-Material.html |
|
UK Government May Cut Energy Support For Business In Half To Save Taxpayer MoneySupport for businesses to help them cope with swelling energy bills will halve in the spring to avoid taxpayers holding the bag if oil and gas prices surge again, according to The Times. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt next month will announce a 12-month extension to a scheme that caps energy costs for businesses, similar to a package for households, although the generosity of the aid will be cut to save money. Under the existing scheme, launched by former prime minister Liz Truss, firms can grab a discount of up to 345 for a megawatt hour of electricity Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UK-Government-May-Cut-Energy-Support-For-Business-In-Half-To-Save-Taxpayer-Money.html |
|
OPEC Production Creeps Higher In DecemberOPEC’s crude oil production increased in December, according to a new Bloomberg survey, but the organization is still significantly shy of its production targets for the month. OPEC’s production for the month of December increased by 150,000 bpd over November figures, the Bloomberg survey showed, with Nigeria instrumental in this increase. Nigeria, which for decades has struggled with oil theft, has said it has effectively cracked down on these rogue activities, allowing it to increase its actual oil production. In October, Nigerian Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Production-Creeps-Higher-In-December.html |
|
Teslas Rough Start To The Year Just Got Worse As Lithium Supplier Changes DealTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock fell sharply on Tuesday, to $106.06 by the afternoon hours, as the EV maker’s fourth-quarter delivery figures released on Tuesday disappointed but a new gut punch was also delivered on Tuesday when one of Tesla’s lithium suppliers changed the terms of the deal. Piedmont Lithium has contracted to supply Tesla with 125,000 tons of lithium concentrate this year from North American Lithium. But unlike previous deals where the price of lithium is fixed, the new deal for Teslas lithium will float based Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Teslas-Rough-Start-To-The-Year-Just-Got-Worse-As-Lithium-Supplier-Changes-Deal.html |
|
Oil And Gas Prices Slide At The Start Of The YearIn this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets. Chart of the WeekEuropean Natural Gas Back to Pre-War Levels- European natural gas prices have fallen to their lowest since February 2022 this week as extraordinarily warm weather in Europe and robust LNG arrivals kept the region’s supply safe. – Front-month TTF spot prices are currently trading at 75 per MWh ($25 per mmBtu), down by 60/MWh from a month ago, as swathes of Europe see temperatures Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-And-Gas-Prices-Slide-At-The-Start-Of-The-Year.html |
|
Southwest Airlines’ schedule stabilizes after holiday meltdown but costs are still piling upSouthwest said it is now focused on improving its technology that contributed to thousands of flight cancellations over the year-end holidays. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/03/southwest-cancellations-stabilize.html |
|
Endeavor shares fall after video shows UFC boss Dana White hitting wife on New Year’s EveEndeavor, run by super-agent Ari Emanuel, took full ownership of Dana White-run UFC in 2021. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/03/endeavor-stock-ufc-dana-white-hits-wife-video.html |
|
Ford says F-Series pickup continued its decades-long dominance in 2022Ford Motor reported sales of its F-Series, which includes the F-150 pickup and its larger siblings, surpassed 640,000 trucks last year. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/03/ford-f-series-2022-sales-show-pickup-continued-decades-long-dominance.html |
|
Home price increases weakened sharply in November, posting the smallest annual gain in 2 yearsHigher mortgage rates and consumer worries are hitting home prices. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/03/home-price-gains-weaken-november.html |
|
Some supply chain managers are wary of shifting trade back to West Coast portsCNBC’s supply chain survey shows logistics managers are concerned about major issues at West Coast ports. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/03/supply-chain-managers-wary-of-shifting-trade-back-to-west-coast-ports.html |
|
Warner Bros. Discovery signs audience measurement deal with startup Nielsen rival VideoAmpWarner Bros. Discovery has agreed to use the measurement platform VideoAmp ahead of the 2023 upfronts. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/03/warner-bros-discovery-videoamp-nielsen.html |
|
Regulators warn U.S. banks on crypto risks including ‘fraud and scams’ after FTX collapseBank executives have said they need further guidance from regulators before dealing more directly with bitcoin and other types of cryptocurrency. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/03/regulators-warn-us-banks-on-crypto-risks-including-fraud-and-scams.html |
|
As investors shift focus from inflation to growth, Club stocks with China exposure stand to gainAs Beijing rolls back restrictions, the Chinese economy has nowhere to go but up. And Club names operating in China should see a boost. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/03/investors-shift-focus-to-growth-stocks-china-exposure-to-gain.html |
|
Feds launch FTX task force to recover victim assets, continue probes as Bankman-Fried pleads not guiltyThe collapse of crypto exchange FTX led to criminal prosecutions of founder Sam Bankman-Fried and two of his lieutenants in New York federal court. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/03/ftx-task-force-launched-as-sam-bankman-fried-appears-in-court.html |
|
The Mega Millions jackpot is $785 million. Taking the lump sum is ‘typically a big mistake,’ lottery lawyer saysNearly all winners opt for the lump sum, but with $785 million at stake, there are significant advantages to spreading out this lottery windfall. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/03/mega-millions-jackpot-is-785-million-why-the-lump-sum-is-overrated.html |
|
We’re buying the dip in a health insurance stock that jumped in 2022Tuesday’s buy puts some of our approximately 10% cash position to work. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/03/were-buying-the-dip-in-a-health-insurance-stock-that-jumped-in-2022.html |
|
Retailers brace for tougher times and more frugal customers in 2023Sales in January could set the tone for 2023 — when some economists and retail industry watchers anticipate the U.S. will tip into a recession. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/02/retailers-brace-for-tougher-times-frugal-shoppers-2023.html |
|
Why restaurant chains are investing in robots and what it means for workersRestaurant chains experimented with automation this year as the labor crunch pressured their profits. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/27/restaurant-chains-are-investing-in-robots-bringing-change-for-workers.html |
|
The Themes That Will Define Bitcoin In 2023Authored by Stephan Livera via BitcoinMagazine.com, As the 2022 chapter closes, it’s time to turn our eyes to what’s coming in 2023. Here are some themes I’m seeing for Bitcoin in 2023. REGULATORY OVERREACHThe Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) Travel Rule is forcing exchanges and bitcoin service providers to document and share ever-more information about customer transactions. We are seeing politicians such as Elizabeth Warren publicly go against Bitcoin, and even if her proposed digital asset AML act has no real chance of passing, it does foreshadow that there are future battles coming on this. But, on the other hand, we should also remember that governments were Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/themes-will-define-bitcoin-2023 |
|
CBOE Explains How Early-Exercise Order-Flow Distorts Equity Put/Call RatiosAuthored by Henry Schwartz via CBOE.com, The ratio of listed option put volume to call volume is a well-known measure for traders who appreciate a relatively simple metric comprised of accessible data that can be applied across assets and time frames. Like most indicators, interpretation of the put/call ratio involves several assumptions – primarily that puts express a bearish view, while calls are bullish. Like the Cboe Volatility ® (VIX®) Index, a high put/call ratio is often considered a sign of investor uncertainty, while a low level usually indicates optimism. Historical data generally supports this assumption, as the put/call ratio typically spikes during crashes and reverts to lower levels in bull markets. In practice, many traders prefer to examine put/call ratios for index, ETF and equity products separately based on the characteristics and use cases across products. For convenience, Cboe Global Markets® provides daily summary data for several market statistics, including a put/call calculation that isolates equity (single stock) options flow trading on the hybrid Cboe Options Exchange (C1). Cboe Equity Put/Call Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cboe-explains-how-early-exercise-order-flow-distorts-equity-putcall-ratios |
|
Sam Bankman-Fried Pleads Not GuiltyUpdate (1500ET): FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried has pleaded not guilty to criminal charges, and is set to face trial in October. Appearing on Tuesday in US District Court in New York, US District Judge Lewis Kaplan set a trial date of October 2nd for the disgraced crypto king, after US prosecutors said they expect to submit all of their evidence in the case over the next month, Bloomberg reports.
|
|
GOP Sours On Kevin: McCarthy Loss Deepens As Jim Jordan Picks Up SteamGOP Sours On Kevin: McCarthy Loss Deepens As Jim Jordan Picks Up SteamUpdate (1455ET): Kevin McCarthy has lost the second tally for Speaker of the House.
Of note, when this happened in 1923, it went to nine ballots. And look who’s gaining steam…
Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bullst-mccarthy-bid-house-house-speaker-devolves-chaos |
|
Energy bill help for firms expected to be halvedGas and electricity prices have been fixed for firms until the end of March, but many want the support to continue. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64155064?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
|
Sam Bankman-Fried pleads not guilty to fraud‘King of Crypto’ Sam Bankman-Fried could face more than 100 years in prison if convicted. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64155545?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
|
Strike daily: How Wednesday 4 January’s walkouts will affect youWhat you need to know about the rail strike and other strike action this week, by the BBC’s Zoe Conway. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64143949?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
|
HDFC assigns loans worth Rs 8,892 cr in Dec quarterGross income from the dividend for the quarter that ended December 31, 2022, was Rs 482 crore compared to Rs 195 crore a year ago Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/earnings/hdfc-assigns-loans-worth-rs-8892-cr-in-dec-quarter/articleshow/96718640.cms |
|
Avenue Supermarts Q3 revenue rises 25% YoY, but the pace of growth slows downThe company, which operates the D-Mart chain of supermarkets, saw revenue rise to Rs 11,305 crore, according to the provisional figures shared by the retailer Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/earnings/avenue-supermarts-q3-revenue-rises-25-yoy-but-pace-of-growth-slows-down/articleshow/96715975.cms |
|
How this chemical engineer found his way to lead one of India’s top mutual fund houses“In money management, being independent is very important. Having an independent thought process is very important because most often we invest like a crowd or like a herd and herds in the long term do not make money. Retaining independence is important, independence comes from asking the right questions and this particular experience sometime in the year 2000 or 2001 was a very important starting point for me in the journey of asking the right questions about anything and everything.” Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/dons-of-dalal-street-how-a-chemical-engineer-found-his-way-to-lead-one-of-indias-top-mutual-fund-house/articleshow/96700230.cms |
|
Kevin McCarthy House speaker vote: Here are the 19 Republicans who defectedDemocratic leader Hakeem Jeffries won a plurality of the votes in the first two rounds but not the speakership. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7174-B9C8B7EC12FC%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
|
McCarthy’s speaker bid in trouble — and could signal House dysfunction in 2023Will top House Republican Kevin McCarthy be successful in his push to become his chamber’s next speaker? Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7174-66DE2D3D6FA9%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
|
TaxWatch: Brace yourself: Your tax refund could shrink in 2023. Here’s why.A constantly changing tax code makes it hard for families to plan their financial lives, one expert says. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7170-C77B356925A9%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |