Updated at 4:04 p.m. December 15, 2022
Here is what we are paying attention to tonight, and the next 48 hours from Thursday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Forecast.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022
Valid 00Z Fri Dec 16 2022 - 00Z Sun Dec 18 2022
...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions will continue through tonight for
portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
...Significant icing for parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic through this
evening...
...Heavy snow for parts of the interior Northeast through Friday...
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both.
The main weather story through the short term period will be the winter weather impacting the north central CONUS and Northeast. A significant winter storm is slowly tracking across the Upper Midwest and causing widespread heavy snow and blizzard conditions across the northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. The system is expected to gradually move northeast and weaken through the end of the week, and hazardous conditions are expected to continue through at least tonight. Snowfall totals of 6-12 inches have been commonly reported across the region with some locations reporting 1-2 feet of snow. Snowfall rates will be trending downwards through the night, but strong gusty winds will bake blowing snow a concern. Visibility will drop to near zero at times, making travel difficult to near impossible. Brisk northwesterly winds on the backside of the system will continue across the north central CONUS through Friday, and high temperatures will remain below freezing for most of the region with wind chills below zero. Looking to the Northeast, precipitation ahead of an approaching low pressure system has spread across the Mid-Atlantic and continues to move further north into the Northeast. The low will track north along the East Coast through Saturday, producing wintry weather. Icy mixed precipitation is expected to continue through this evening for parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic, mainly in the higher elevations of the Appalachians. Elsewhere in the Mid-Atlantic, precipitation has transitioned to a cold, soaking rain that will continue through tonight. For the interior Northeast, precipitation tonight and Friday will fall as snow and become heavy at times. Storm total snowfall accumulations of 6-12 inches, with locally higher amounts of 18-24 inches, are expected for much of eastern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Closer to the coast, precipitation will fall as rain, and rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected through Saturday along the Northeastern coast. The storm system will pull away from the region on Sunday, and precipitation will taper off from south to north. Lake effect snowfall will likely continue through the weekend downwind of Lakes Ontario and Superior as west-southwesterly winds develop. In the Southeast, a cold front continues to push across the region. The front will move southeast while weakening through Friday and push south of the Florida peninsula by Friday night. The front produced scattered severe thunderstorms in the Southeast today, but severe potential will gradually decrease tonight, and severe weather is not anticipated on Friday. In the West, strong high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the end of the week, and a frontal system will slowly nudge into the region from the north over the weekend. Inland snow and coastal rain will accompany the frontal system, moving into the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern High Plains on Saturday and expanding southwards early next week. Between arctic high pressure building in the West and departing low pressure systems in the East, northwesterly winds will funnel colder air into the CONUS. Below normal temperatures are expected to spread across most of the nation by this weekend, followed by a blast of much below normal temperatures in the north central CONUS early next week. High temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be in the teens and single digits across the northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest, nearly 20 to 30 degrees below normal. Highs on Sunday are forecast to be in the 30s and 40s for the intermountain west and much of the East and in the 50s and 60s for the West Coast and the South.
Day 1 and Day 2 Maps can be found by clicking Here for Day 1 and Here for Day 2. This Link works also.
THURSDAY NIGHT
FRIDAY
Current Two-day forecast of heavy precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Here is a 60-hour animated forecast map that shows how the short-term forecast is expected to play out
If it needs to be updated click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
Click HERE to update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Days 1 Through 5 and 6 – 10 (I update these graphics every two days – but the reader can get an update if they want but the situation usually does not change that quickly)
| Days 1 – 5 (3 – 7 for Temperature) | Days 6 – 10 |
| https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ |
| These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be. An alternate website is https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml | |
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Days 6 – 10 Outlook
An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information from deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS (I update these graphics every two days – but the reader can get an update if they want but the situation usually does not change that quickly)
Click h ere for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images.
Worldwide Weather (The U.S. is part of the World so the U.S. forecast is included in these maps)
Below maps are the short-term forecast for precipitation and 10-day forecast for temperature and precipitation. I update the Day 1 Forecast daily and the ten-day forecasts every two days. A ten-day forecast is not likely to change much in 24 hours. But if you are looking at an out-of-date version of this article the current forecast maps can be obtained HERE.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast
(This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here This is a new approach and covers weeks 2 and 3 not weeks 1 and 2. It has more information but I am having trouble getting used to it. As usual, it comes with a discussion which is below
Detailed Maps and Reports for the Western Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans
Below are four maps that summarize the situation for the Atlantic, Eastern, Central Pacific, and Western Pacific. Additional information can be accessed by clicking HERE
First the Atlantic
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc .noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin= atlc&fdays=5
Then Eastern Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
Then Central Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=5
And the Western Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Some Longer U.S. Intermediate-Term Outlooks
Links to “Outlook” maps and discussions for Two time periods. Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4.
You have to click on the links because they do not update automatically and I do not want to have stale images in the article. But it is not difficult to click on a link and you get a large image plus a discussion. On Fridays in a separate article, we will show the images and provide a link in this article that article. But remember what you will see is the images as of Friday. But here you can get the current images simply by clicking on them. Then hit the return arrow at the upper left of your screen to return to the article. You will not find this information easily anywhere else.
| Days 8 – 14 | Weeks 3 and 4 |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
| These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will e | |
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Month to Date Information
Month to date Temperature can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Month to date Precipitation can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPNormUS.png
