Updated at 4:30 pm December 14, 2022
Here is what we are paying attention to tonight, and the next 48 hours from Wednesday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Forecast.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 305 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 Valid 00Z Thu Dec 15 2022 - 00Z Sat Dec 17 2022 ...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions will continue through Thursday in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest... ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will continue to threaten portions of the South and Southeast through tonight... ...Accumulating snow and freezing rain likely to impact the interior Northeast and northern/central Appalachians Thursday into Friday...
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both.
A major storm system system was moving from the central Plains towards the Upper Midwest this afternoon and causing widespread heavy snow and blizzard conditions in the northern/Central Plains and wintry mixed precipitation in the Upper Midwest. Snow rates of 1-2 inches per hour and winds gusting to 45-60 mph in the northern/central Plains will create near zero visibility at times, and snow will cover roads. Travel will be extremely difficult to nearly impossible in some areas, and power outages and harsh livestock conditions are expected. The storm will track through the Upper Midwest on Thursday, then slow down while weakening in the Great Lakes region late this week. Hazardous conditions are expected to continue across the northern Plains and intensify across the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Additional snow accumulations of 8-12 inches are expected with locally higher amounts possible for portions of the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin through Thursday. The highest snow accumulations are expected across the Minnesota arrowhead where additional snowfall could reach 18-24+ inches. Conditions will relax on Friday as the storm system weakens. A strong cold front is extending from the storm system impacting the north central U.S. and causing severe weather in the South and Southeast. The front was stretched along the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon while pushing east. Ahead of and along the front, conditions are favorable for the development of many severe thunderstorms today. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a broad Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 3/5) for much of the south near the northern Gulf Coast with an embedded Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for portions of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and western/southern Alabama. Potential severe storm threats include tornadoes, some may be strong, and damaging thunderstorm winds, which will continue to threaten the region through tonight. Convection is likely to be sustained and slow moving, which will result in heavy downpours and flash flooding. There is a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) in effect from eastern Louisiana to western Alabama through tonight where the risk of flash flooding is highest. As the front progresses east on Friday, the severe weather threat will shift into the Southeast. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) for parts of Florida, coastal/southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina for Friday. Scattered severe storms will be possible and the main threats will be a few tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm winds. Shifting back to the north, winter weather is expected to impact portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday and Friday. The upper level low associated with winter storm in the Plains/Upper Midwest will move east and spawn a surface low along the east coast in the Mid-Atlantic region. The low will track northwards along the coast through the end of the week. Freezing rain and icy mixed precipitation are expected to begin early Thursday morning in the northern/central Appalachians and portions of the interior Mid-Atlantic region then expand into the interior Northeast during the day on Thursday. Freezing rain totals between 0.1-.25 inches, locally higher, will be possible in the Central Appalachians of western Virginia, eastern West Virginia, the Maryland Panhandle, and central/Western Pennsylvania. Icy precipitation could impact travel during the morning commute along the I-95 corridor. As precipitation spreads northwards, rain will develop across the Mid-Atlantic and snow is expected over the interior Northeast. Snow will continue through Friday in the interior Northeast and will be heavy at times at the higher elevations. Precipitation will taper off over the weekend in the Northeast as the system exits into the Atlantic.
Day 1 and Day 2 Maps can be found by clicking Here for Day 1 and Here for Day 2. This Link works also.
| WPC National Forecast Chart Static Images |
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WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT |
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THURSDAY |
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FRIDAY (one extra day) |
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Current Two-day forecast of heavy precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Here is a 60-hour animated forecast map that shows how the short-term forecast is expected to play out
If it needs to be updated click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
Click HERE to update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Days 1 Through 5 and 6 – 10 (I update these graphics every two days – but the reader can get an update if they want but the situation usually does not change that quickly)
| Days 1 – 5 (3 – 7 for Temperature) | Days 6 – 10 |
| https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ |
| These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be. An alternate website is https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml | |
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Days 6 – 10 Outlook
An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information from deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS (I update these graphics every two days – but the reader can get an update if they want but the situation usually does not change that quickly)
Click h ere for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images.
Worldwide Weather (The U.S. is part of the World so the U.S. forecast is included in these maps)
Below maps are the short-term forecast for precipitation and 10-day forecast for temperature and precipitation. I update the Day 1 Forecast daily and the ten-day forecasts every two days. A ten-day forecast is not likely to change much in 24 hours. But if you are looking at an out-of-date version of this article the current forecast maps can be obtained HERE.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast
(This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here This is a new approach and covers weeks 2 and 3 not weeks 1 and 2. It has more information but I am having trouble getting used to it. As usual, it comes with a discussion which is below
Detailed Maps and Reports for the Western Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans
Below are four maps that summarize the situation for the Atlantic, Eastern, Central Pacific, and Western Pacific. Additional information can be accessed by clicking HERE
First the Atlantic
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc .noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin= atlc&fdays=5
Then Eastern Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
Then Central Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=5
And the Western Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Some Longer U.S. Intermediate-Term Outlooks
Links to “Outlook” maps and discussions for Two time periods. Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4.
You have to click on the links because they do not update automatically and I do not want to have stale images in the article. But it is not difficult to click on a link and you get a large image plus a discussion. On Fridays in a separate article, we will show the images and provide a link in this article that article. But remember what you will see is the images as of Friday. But here you can get the current images simply by clicking on them. Then hit the return arrow at the upper left of your screen to return to the article. You will not find this information easily anywhere else.
| Days 8 – 14 | Weeks 3 and 4 |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
| These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will e | |
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Month to Date Information
Month to date Temperature can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Month to date Precipitation can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPNormUS.png
