Updated at 3:04 p.m. EST December 9, 2022
Here is what we are paying attention to today and the next 48 hours from Friday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. During the week we publish each morning. On Weekends, we will publish late Friday night and do updates during the weekend. Either way, you will have current forecasts with a longer forecast on the weekends. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Article.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 250 PM EST Fri Dec 09 2022 Valid 00Z Sat Dec 10 2022 - 00Z Mon Dec 12 2022 ...Major storm system to bring heavy mountain snow and coastal rain to the West this weekend... ...Episodes of moderate to locally heavy rain possible as showers and thunderstorms continue for the South... ...Wintry weather expected to enter the Northeast early Sunday...
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both.
A deep upper-level trough and closed low entering the West tonight will usher in a surge of Pacific moisture that will produce dangerous winter weather conditions across the high terrain, as well as heavy rain along coastal California. Heavy mountain snow is expected to first enter the Cascades, Sierra, and northern Great Basin this weekend. Heavy snowfall rates will likely result in extremely dangerous travel, especially across mountain passes. Snowfall totals of 1-3 feet are possible across much much of the higher terrain, with locally more than 5 feet expected in the Sierra. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect from the southern Sierra Nevada to the northern Cascades. Gusty winds may also accompany the system, which has prompted High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories to be hoisted over parts of California and southwest Oregon. At the lower elevations, heavy rain is possible along a cold front as it gradually pushes inland and southward across California through Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches may lead to scattered instances of flash flooding across the central coast of California on Saturday and southern California on Sunday. Recent burn scars and susceptible terrain will be most at risk to flooding and rapid runoff. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for flash flooding has been issued for these regions. Hazardous snowfall is also anticipated to enter the Intermountain West on Sunday and Sunday night, with snow even reaching into the lower elevations. Farther east, a lingering frontal boundary extending from the southern Plains to the Southeast may produce areas of heavy rain from north-central Texas to Arkansas on Saturday. General rainfall totals should not lead to widespread flash flooding concerns, but isolated impacts cannot be ruled out where the heaviest rates occur. This area of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to shift eastward on Sunday before the system over the western U.S. enters the Great Plains early next week. For the Northeast, a relatively weak upper-level low swinging from the Great Lakes will lead to an area of light to moderate snowfall across parts of the Northeast on Sunday. The areas most likely to see a coating to a few inches of snow extends from Upstate New York and northern Pennsylvania to far southern New England. This may lead to a brief period of slippery travel Sunday that could linger into the early morning hours on Monday. Temperatures for much of the central and southern United States this weekend will reach into above average territory, with the most anomalous warmth centered across the Deep South and Gulf Coast. Otherwise, chilly weather will remain over parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and West.
Day 1 and Day 2 Maps can be found by clicking Here for Day 1 and Here for Day 2.
Friday
Saturday
Current Two-day forecast of heavy precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Here is a 60-hour animated forecast map that shows how the short-term forecast is expected to play out
If it needs to be updated click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
Click HERE to update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Days 1 Through 5 and 6 – 10 (I update these graphics every two days – but the reader can get an update if they want but the situation usually does not change that quickly)
| Days 1 – 5 | Days 6 – 10 |
| https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ |
| These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be. An alternate website is https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml | |
–
Days 6 – 10 Outlook
An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information from deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS (I update these graphics every two days – but the reader can get an update if they want but the situation usually does not change that quickly)
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images.
Worldwide Weather (The U.S. is part of the World so the U.S. forecast is included in these maps)
Below maps are the short-term forecast for precipitation and 10-day forecast for temperature and precipitation. I update the Day 1 Forecast daily and the ten-day forecasts every two days. A ten-day forecast is not likely to change much in 24 hours. But if you are looking at an out-of-date version of this article the current forecast maps can be obtained HERE.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast
(This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here This is a new approach and covers weeks 2 and 3 not weeks 1 and 2. It has more information but I am having trouble getting used to it. As usual, it comes with a discussion which is below
Detailed Maps and Reports for the Western Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans
Below are four maps that summarize the situation for the Atlantic, Eastern, Central Pacific, and Western Pacific. Additional information can be accessed by clicking HERE
First the Atlantic
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc .noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin= atlc&fdays=5
Then Eastern Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
Then Central Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=5
And the Western Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Some Longer U.S. Intermediate-Term Outlooks
Links to “Outlook” maps and discussions for Two time periods. Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4.
You have to click on the links because they do not update automatically and I do not want to have stale images in the article. But it is not difficult to click on a link and you get a large image plus a discussion. On Fridays in a separate article, we will show the images and provide a link in this article that article. But remember what you will see is the images as of Friday. But here you can get the current images simply by clicking on them. Then hit the return arrow at the upper left of your screen to return to the article. You will not find this information easily anywhere else.
| Days 8 – 14 | Weeks 3 and 4 |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
| These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be | |
–
Month to Date Information
Month to date Temperature can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Month to date Precipitation can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPNormUS.png
