Updated at 4:37 p.m. EST December 7, 2022
Here is what we are paying attention to this afternoon and the next 48 hours from Wednesday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. During the week we will publish each evening. On Weekends, we will publish Friday night and do updates during the weekend. Either way, you will have current forecasts with a longer forecast on the weekends. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Article.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 305 PM EST Wed Dec 07 2022 Valid 00Z Thu Dec 08 2022 - 00Z Sat Dec 10 2022 ...Heavy rain and marginal flash flooding threat across the Central Plains through Thursday morning... ...Wintry weather spreading into the Central/Northern Plains tonight into tomorrow... ...Next round of heavy precipitation expected to reach the Pacific Northwest later tonight before spreading inland and down into California Thursday night into early Friday...
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both.
A meandering front with a steady feed of low-level moisture continues to be the focus for disturbed weather across the south-central portion of the mainland U.S. over the next couple of days. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is noted along and ahead of the slow moving cold front this afternoon over portions of the Southern Plains, through the Tennessee Valley, and into New England. Through tonight, an upper-level disturbance west of the ongoing showers is forecast to lift eastward and interact with a trailing portion of the front over the Southern Plains. This interaction is forecast to yield an uptick in excessive rainfall potential over portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks overnight, spreading into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley tomorrow. Isolated runoff issues are possible through tomorrow morning with this activity, denoted in the most recent WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook that highlights a Marginal (level 1/5) risk of excessive rainfall generally from the Red River eastward through the Tennessee Valley. North of the heavy rainfall, temperatures will be cold enough to support mixed precipitation (including some freezing rain and drizzle) and snow over the Central/Northern Plains beginning early Thursday morning, where a few inches of snowfall are forecast through Friday morning. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect through Thursday evening over Northwest Kansas/Central Nebraska for freezing rain/drizzle potential tomorrow. The overall pattern supporting the wet weather from the southern Plains into the Northeast will also support much above average temperatures over the next few days over the Central to Southern Plains, and eastward into the East Coast. After numerous record high minimum and a few maximum temperatures were set yesterday over the Lower Mississippi Valley, a much more expansive area of potentially record high minimum (and a few daily maximum) temperatures are forecast to continue through Friday across portions of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Looking toward the west, the next Pacific system arriving along the West Coast is on track to spread low elevation rainfall and heavy high elevation snows to the Pacific Northwest into Central California beginning tonight. The current WPC Winter Storm Severity index now reflects Moderate to locally Major potential winter storm impacts in elevation over the Olympics and Cascades tomorrow through Friday, where snowfall accumulations in excess of a foot could fall. As of this afternoon, a slew of Winter Weather Advisories are in effect over the Cascades through early Friday morning for this expected snowfall.
Day 1 and Day 2 Maps can be found by clicking Here for Day 1 and Here for Day 2.
Wednesday
Thursday
Current Two-day forecast of heavy precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Here is a 60-hour animated forecast map that shows how the short-term forecast is expected to play out
If it needs to be updated click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
Click HERE to update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Days 1 Through 5 and 6 – 10 (I update these graphics every two days – but the reader can get an update if they want but the situation usually does not change that quickly)
| Days 1 – 5 | Days 6 – 10 |
| https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ |
| These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be. An alternate website is https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml | |
–
Days 6 – 10 Outlook
An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information from deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS (I update these graphics every two days – but the reader can get an update if they want but the situation usually does not change that quickly)
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images.
Worldwide Weather (The U.S. is part of the World so the U.S. forecast is included in these maps)
Below maps are the short-term forecast for precipitation and 10-day forecast for temperature and precipitation. I update the Day 1 Forecast daily and the ten-day forecasts every two days. A ten-day forecast is not likely to change much in 24 hours. But if you are looking at an out-of-date version of this article the current forecast maps can be obtained HERE.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast
(This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here This is a new approach and covers weeks 2 and 3 not weeks 1 and 2. It has more information but I am having trouble getting used to it. As usual, it comes with a discussion which is below
Detailed Maps and Reports for the Western Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans
Below are four maps that summarize the situation for the Atlantic, Eastern, Central Pacific, and Western Pacific. Additional information can be accessed by clicking HERE
First the Atlantic
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc .noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin= atlc&fdays=5
Then Eastern Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
Then Central Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=5
And the Western Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Some Longer U.S. Intermediate-Term Outlooks
Links to “Outlook” maps and discussions for Two time periods. Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4.
You have to click on the links because they do not update automatically and I do not want to have stale images in the article. But it is not difficult to click on a link and you get a large image plus a discussion. On Fridays in a separate article, we will show the images and provide a link in this article that article. But remember what you will see is the images as of Friday. But here you can get the current images simply by clicking on them. Then hit the return arrow at the upper left of your screen to return to the article. You will not find this information easily anywhere else.
| Days 8 – 14 | Weeks 3 and 4 |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
| These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be | |
–
Month to Date Information
Month to date Temperature can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Month to date Precipitation can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPNormUS.png
