Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.
...Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole will merge with an approaching cold front while spreading heavy rain across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Saturday... ...Below average temperatures for much of the lower 48 by Sunday... ...Freeze and Hard Freeze Warnings in effect over portions of the Southern Plains tonight...
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated twice a day and these updates can be found here.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole's extratropical transition should complete by tonight, at which point it will merge with a cold front sweeping across the Ohio Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely from the Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley up through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast tonight. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding is in effect over the Central/Appalachians, up through the Allegheny/Western Pennsylvania and into upstate New York where convective bands may yield high rain rates, particularly over urban areas and elevated terrain. A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms as well as tornado watches are in effect over portions of the Virginia/North Carolina Tidewater and points inland tonight within an environment of elevated instability. Wind advisories remain in effect over much of South Carolina and western North Carolina tonight. Showers and thunderstorm activity associated with Nicole will retreat mostly into New England by Saturday before concluding tomorrow night. Surface troughing and northwesterly flow on the backside of the upper trough associated with the eastern U.S. cold front will generate light to moderate snow downwind of the Great Lakes through Sunday. Between 4-8 inches of snow is likely over portions of western Michigan and the U.P. with locally higher amounts possible. Record high temperatures and widespread low temperature records are set to be broken across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Coasts tonight and Saturday. Another Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is in effect over portions of southern-central Texas tonight due to an approaching and strong cold front from the north. Large hail will be the main severe weather threat according to the Storm Prediction Center. Temperatures will drop significantly across much of Texas and many places will experience their first freeze of the season behind the cold front tonight. Freeze and Hard Freeze warnings are in effect for much of southeastern New Mexico through central Texas and up into central Oklahoma as a result. Surface high pressure and below average temperatures dominate over much of the lower 48 in the wake of Nicole and the East Coast system by this Sunday and continuing into the work week.
Current forecast of heavy precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Maps that relate the forecast to geography can be found by clicking Here for Day 1 and Here for Day 2.
Here is a 60-hour animated forecast map that shows how the short-term forecast is expected to play out
If it needs to be updated click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
Click HERE to update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast
(This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here This is a new approach and covers weeks 2 and 3 not weeks 1 and 2. It has more information but I am having trouble getting used to it. As usual, it comes with a discussion which is below
Detailed Maps and Reports for the Western Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans
Below are four maps that summarize the situation for the Atlantic, Eastern, Central Pacific, and Western Pacific. Additional information can be accessed by clicking HERE
First the Atlantic
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc .noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin= atlc&fdays=5
Then Eastern Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
Then Central Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=5
And the Western Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Some Intermediate-Term Outlooks
Links to “Outlook” maps and discussions for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information from deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
You have to click on the links because they do not update automatically and I do not want to have stale images in the article. But it is not difficult to click on a link and you get a large image plus a discussion. On Fridays in a separate article, we will show the images and provide a link in this article that article. But remember what you will see is the images as of Friday. But here you can get the current images simply by clicking on them. Then hit the return arrow at the upper left of your screen to return to the article. You will not find this information easily anywhere else.
Right now you can find these maps here (We show them every Friday there but you can click above and find them).
Worldwide Weather
Below is the current or short-term precipitation forecast which can be updated by clicking HERE Additional maps can be obtained H ERE.
Month to Date Information
Month to date Temperature can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Month to date Precipitation can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPNormUS.png
