Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.
...Tropical Cyclone Nicole will continue impacting Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina today, impacts will spread north Friday into the weekend... ...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions possible in the northern High Plains, Great Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley today into Friday... ...Strong cold front to spread below normal temperatures across most of the nation by the end of the weekend...
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated twice a day and these updates can be found here.
Tropical cyclone Nicole made landfall early this morning just south of Vero Beach on the Florida east coast. The system is forecast to track northwest across Florida today, then curve northeast overnight and track along the Appalachians towards the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. Tropical hazards will impact areas far outside the forecast cone produced by the National Hurricane Center, and impacts are expected for much of the Southeast. Tropical storm conditions will continue for Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas today. Increased waves and storm surge are expected along the east coast from south Florida to southern North Carolina and along the west coast of Florida. Marine and beach conditions will be especially dangerous for Florida and coastal Georgia. Heavy rainfall will continue today across the Florida peninsula and will likely result in flash, urban, and river flooding. Heavy rainfall will spread northwards Friday into Saturday, and isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through west-central Pennsylvania into western New York by Friday night into Saturday. In addition to damaging winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall, there will be the potential for several tornadoes north and east of the cyclone's center from central Florida to the Carolinas. See nhc.noaa.gov for the latest information regarding Nicole. While Nicole reminds us we are still in Hurricane Season, it will feel more like the winter season in the northern central U.S. as a deepening low pressure system brings winter storm conditions to the region. Heavy snow, as well as sleet and freezing rain, will impact the northern High Plains, Great Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley today into Friday. Heavy snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are possible today from the Dakotas eastward into northwestern Minnesota. Gusty winds combined with heavy snow could produce blizzard conditions at times. Total snowfall will likely exceed 12" in some locations. Blizzard Warnings, Ice Storm Warnings, and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the Dakotas, northwestern Minnesota, and eastern Montana. Ahead of the low pressure system, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Upper Midwest today where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms (level 1/5). Damaging winds and a brief tornado will be possible. The low pressure system will continue to move north-northeast through the end of the week and pull a strong cold front towards the east coast this weekend. Cold, arctic air will move in from the north as strong high pressure builds behind the front and below normal temperatures are forecast to spread across most of the nation by Sunday. The coldest temperatures are expected in the northern Plains today and Friday, high temperatures are forecast to only reach the teens and lower 20s and low temperatures are forecast to drop into the single digits.
Current forecast of heavy precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Maps that relate the forecast to geography can be found by clicking Here for Day 1 and Here for Day 2.
Here is a 60-hour animated forecast map that shows how the short-term forecast is expected to play out
If it needs to be updated click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
Click HERE to update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast
(This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here This is a new approach and covers weeks 2 and 3 not weeks 1 and 2. It has more information but I am having trouble getting used to it. As usual, it comes with a discussion which is below
Detailed Maps and Reports for the Western Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans
Below are four maps that summarize the situation for the Atlantic, Eastern, Central Pacific, and Western Pacific. Additional information can be accessed by clicking HERE
First the Atlantic
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc .noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin= atlc&fdays=5
Then Eastern Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
Then Central Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=5
And the Western Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Some Intermediate-Term Outlooks
Links to “Outlook” maps and discussions for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information from deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
You have to click on the links because they do not update automatically and I do not want to have stale images in the article. But it is not difficult to click on a link and you get a large image plus a discussion. On Fridays in a separate article, we will show the images and provide a link in this article that article. But remember what you will see is the images as of Friday. But here you can get the current images simply by clicking on them. Then hit the return arrow at the upper left of your screen to return to the article. You will not find this information easily anywhere else.
Right now you can find these maps here (We show them every Friday there but you can click above and find them).
Worldwide Weather
Below is the current or short-term precipitation forecast which can be updated by clicking HERE Additional maps can be obtained H ERE.
Month to Date Information
Month to date Temperature can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Month to date Precipitation can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPNormUS.png
