Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.
...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over Southern California, Nevada, and Arizona through Sunday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast and a second area over the Central Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Great Lakes, a second area over the Mid-Atlantic, and a third over Eastern Gulf Coast from Sunday into Monday morning... ...Elevated fire weather over parts of the Pacific Northwest...
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated twice a day and these updates can be found here.
Moisture that was associated with what was Tropical Cyclone KAY will linger over Southern California into the Southwest through Monday. Upper-level energy and diurnal heating will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the southeastern portion of the country through Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. In addition, burn scares in the southern Sierra-Nevada Mountains and the LA area will also be vulnerable. The threat of excessive rainfall decreases slightly on Sunday into Monday when the WPC has a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over the southwestern portion of the country. Meanwhile, tropical moisture streaming northward across Florida s Gulf Coast into the Mid-Atlantic, along with upper-level energy, will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the southeastern portion of the country through Monday. As a result, the WPC has targeted two areas for a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast and Central Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic through Monday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. On Sunday, the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is slightly small over parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast. The Slight Risk of excessive rainfall moves northeastward to more of the northern Mid-Atlantic and some of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Moreover, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to the Southern High Plains will move eastward and southward to the East Coast and the Gulf Coast by Monday. Low pressure along the boundary will aid in streaming moisture into the Great Lakes producing rain and showers/thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from Sunday into Monday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. On Monday, the Slight Risk expands slightly over the Upper Great Lakes in areal coverage. Elsewhere, hot temperatures and upper-level ridging have dried out vegetation and gusty wind over parts of the Pacific Northwest has prompted the SPC to issue an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Pacific Northwest through Sunday morning. As a result, the fire weather threat has prompted Red Flag Warnings over parts of western Oregon and Washington State.
Maps that relate the forecast to geography can be found by clicking Here for Day 1 and Here for Day 2. Usually, you have to click on them to see them> We have done that for you because of what was Hurricane Kay. So here they are.
Here is a 60-hour animated forecast map that shows how the short-term forecast is expected to play out.
If it needs to be updated click here.
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast
(This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here
Detailed Maps and Reports for the Western Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans
Below are three maps that summarize the situation for the Atlantic, Eastern and Central Pacific. Additional information can be accessed by clicking HERE
First the Atlantic
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc .noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Then Eastern Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
Then Central Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=5
And the Western Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Some Intermediate-Term Outlooks
Links to “Outlook” maps and discussions for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information from deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
You have to click on the links because they do not update automatically and I do not want to have stale images in the article. But it is not difficult to click on a link and you get a large image plus a discussion. On Fridays in a separate article, we will show the images and provide a link in this article that article. But remember what you will see is the images as of Friday. But here you can get the current images simply by clicking on them. Then hit the return arrow at the upper left of your screen to return to the article. You will not find this information easily anywhere else.
Right now you can find these maps here (We show them every Friday there but you can click above and find them).
World Forecast for Day 6 (Currently Set for Day 6 but the reader can change that)
World Weather Forecast produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Unfortunately, I do not know how to extract the control panel and embed it into my report so that you could use the tool within my report. But if you visit it Click Here and you will be able to use the tool to view temperature or many other things for THE WORLD. It can forecast out for a week. Pretty cool. Return to this report by using the “Back Arrow” usually found top left corner of your screen to the left of the URL Box. It may require hitting it a few times depending on how deep you are into the BOM tool. Below are the current worldwide precipitation and air pressure forecasts for six days out. They will not auto-update and right now are current for Day 6. If you want the forecast for a different day Click Here I will try to update this map each day but you have the link so you can access the dashboard and get a wide variety of forecasts.I mostly rely on the reader to interpret world maps. For this map, areas of expected precipitation for the date and time shown are clearly shown. The number of High-Pressure systems shown is called the Wave Number. Maybe I will discuss WN someday. But it shows how many Rossby Waves there are around the World. Sometimes they are hard to count. Counting Low-Pressure systems should provide the same WN. Rossby Waves are the way the temperature distribution of the Planet remains in balance. It is basically the science of fluid dynamics. It can be very helpful in predicting the movement of weather patterns. You can snip an area of interest and move it into MS Paint and enlarge it.
Month to Date Information
Month to date Temperature can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Month to date Precipitation can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPNormUS.png
