Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.
...Monsoonal storms and the potential for flooding to continue for portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin and Rockies... ...Showers and thunderstorms leading to heavy rainfall expected along the immediate Gulf Coast through the early weekend... ...Below-average temperatures and drier air behind an advancing cold front will lead to a comfortable weekend in the Eastern region...
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated twice a day and these updates can be found here.
Monsoonal rainfall is expected to continue in the Southwest & Great Basin over the next several days as persistent southwesterly flow will produce widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, causing isolated pockets of flash flooding. As a result, a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been hoisted for a large portion of the region in the Days 1-3 timeframe. Further east, above-average temperatures are forecast to continue in the central and northern Plains, where temperatures will remain in the 90s and low 100s through the weekend. While still hot, dew point values in the 40s and 50s will lessen the potential heat impact. Moreover, showers and thunderstorms are possible to the north of a slow-moving cold front draped across the Midwest, with precipitation amounts expected to remain light. In the Southeast, showers and thunderstorms will lead to heavy rainfall at times over the next several days, as persistent onshore flow converges along a weak surface trough located along the Gulf Coast, with the greatest potential for heavier amounts existing along the immediate coast, and lesser totals expected further inland. In the wake of a cold front, much of the Midwest and East Coast are finally experiencing relief from the widespread heat and humidity that has been plaguing the region over the past several weeks. A secondary cold front, expected to sweep through the Northeast and Ohio Valley Thursday evening, will provide further relief as cooler and drier air filters in behind it. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s and low 80s, with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s across the Midwest and Northeast on Friday and Saturday, leading to comfortable conditions for outdoor activities this weekend.
Maps that relate the forecast to geography can be found by clicking Here for Day 1 and Here for Day 2.
Here is a 60-hour animated forecast map that shows how the short-term forecast is expected to play out.
If it needs to be updated click here.
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click h ere for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast
(This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking he re
Detailed Maps and Reports for the Western Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans
Below are three maps that summarize the situation for the Atlantic, Eastern and Central Pacific. Additional information can be accessed by clicking HERE
First the Atlantic
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Then Eastern Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
Then Central Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=5
And the Western Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Some Intermediate-Term Outlooks
Links to “Outlook” maps and discussions for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information from deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
You have to click on the links because they do not update automatically and I do not want to have stale images in the article. But it is not difficult to click on a link and you get a large image plus a discussion. On Fridays in a separate article, we will show the images and provide a link in this article that article. But remember what you will see is the images as of Friday. But here you can get the current images simply by clicking on them. Then hit the return arrow at the upper left of your screen to return to the article. You will not find this information easily anywhere else.
Right now you can find these maps here (We show them every Friday there but you can click above and find them).
World Forecast for Day 6 (Currently Set for Day 6 but the reader can change that)
World Weather Forecast produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Unfortunately, I do not know how to extract the control panel and embed it into my report so that you could use the tool within my report. But if you visit it Click Here and you will be able to use the tool to view temperature or many other things for THE WORLD. It can forecast out for a week. Pretty cool. Return to this report by using the “Back Arrow” usually found top left corner of your screen to the left of the URL Box. It may require hitting it a few times depending on how deep you are into the BOM tool. Below are the current worldwide precipitation and air pressure forecasts for six days out. They will not auto-update and right now are current for Day 6. If you want the forecast for a different day Click Here I will try to update this map each day but you have the link so you can access the dashboard and get a wide variety of forecasts.
I mostly rely on the reader to interpret world maps. For this map, areas of expected precipitation for the date and time shown are clearly shown.
The number of High-Pressure systems shown is called the Wave Number. Maybe I will discuss WN someday. But it shows how many Rossby Waves there are around the World. Sometimes they are hard to count. Counting Low-Pressure systems should provide the same WN. Rossby Waves are the way the temperature distribution of the Planet remains in balance. It is basically the science of fluid dynamics. It can be very helpful in predicting the movement of weather patterns.
Month to Date Information
Month to date Temperature can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Month to date Precipitation can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPNormUS.png
