Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.
...Focus of excessive rainfall will be from the central High Plains eastward to the interior Deep South through tonight as a cold front brings much improved weather across the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic into Saturday... ...Daily rounds of heavy downpours could cause flash flooding from Arizona to the Mid-South region over the next few days... ...Excessive heat persists over the Pacific Northwest through the weekend as heat begins to build over the northern Plains...
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated twice a day and these updates can be found here.
After multiple days of inclement weather and cases of historic flooding across the Midwest to Kentucky, a cool air mass centered over the Great Lakes is forecast to bring much improved weather to the flood-stricken areas this weekend. As the cool air mass continues to advance eastward, showers and possibly severe thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will steadily progress across the central Appalachians and into the northern Mid-Atlantic through tonight before drier and cooler air filters further into the northeastern quadrant of the country on Saturday. Meanwhile, the trailing portion of the front will remain nearly stationary across the southern Plains through Saturday as wave of low pressure is forecast to form and move eastward along the front. This will keep the threat of heavy rain in place from the central High Plains eastward through the Tennessee Valley into Saturday, with the highest threat of heavy rain over the central High Plains into tonight. By Sunday, the main energy associated with the frontal wave is forecast to shift eastward into the Tennessee Valley and then begin to lift northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday evening. The central Plains will have a chance to dry out a bit by then. Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture is forecast to persist across Arizona into the Four-corners region this weekend. Day-time heating will continue to trigger scattered thunderstorms across the region each day. Some of the thunderstorms will likely contain heavy downpours that could lead to flash flooding concerns especially over burn scars. The chance of heavy rain appears to decrease slightly across the region later on Sunday as the upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to shift east toward the northern Plains. This will bring increasing heat into the northern High Plains by the weekend. Ahead of the upper ridge, a developing low pressure wave is expected to spread showers and thunderstorms eastward across the northern Plains during the weekend, reaching into the upper Midwest on Sunday. The heat wave across the Pacific Northwest will continue through the weekend with only slight improvement on Sunday. High temperatures are forecast to approach 110 degrees at the hottest interior locations of the Pacific Northwest while the streak of 90s continues closer to shore in Seattle. The southern tier will remain hot but not quite as intense as earlier this week. Meanwhile, cool air over the central Plains associated with the heavy rain is forecast to expand eastward. The Desert Southwest will be slightly cooler than normal through the weekend.
Maps that relate the forecast to geography can be found by clicking Here for Day 1 and Here for Day 2.
Here is a 60-hour animated forecast map that shows how the short-term forecast is expected to play out.
If it needs to be updated click here.
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for reads to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast
(This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking he re
Detailed Maps and Reports for the Western Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans
Below are three maps that summarize the situation for the Atlantic, Eastern and Central Pacific. Additional information can be accessed by clicking HERE
First the Atlantic
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Then Eastern Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
Then Central Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=5
And the Western Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Some Intermediate-Term Outlooks
Links to “Outlook” maps and discussions for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information from deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
You have to click on the links because they do not update automatically and I do not want to have stale images in the article. But it is not difficult to click on a link and you get a large image plus a discussion. On Fridays in a separate article, we will show the images and provide a link in this article that article. But remember what you will see is the images as of Friday. But here you can get the current images simply by clicking on them. Then hit the return arrow at the upper left of your screen to return to the article. You will not find this information easily anywhere else.
Right now you can find these maps here (We show them every Friday there but you can click above and find them).
Forecast for Day 6 (Currently Set for Day 6 but the reader can change that)
World Weather Forecast produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Unfortunately, I do not know how to extract the control panel and embed it into my report so that you could use the tool within my report. But if you visit it Click H ere and you will be able to use the tool to view temperature or many other things for THE WORLD. It can forecast out for a week. Pretty cool. Return to this report by using the “Back Arrow” usually found top left corner of your screen to the left of the URL Box. It may require hitting it a few times depending on how deep you are into the BOM tool. Below are the current worldwide precipitation and air pressure forecasts for six days out. They will not auto-update and right now are current for Day 6. If you want the forecast for a different day Click Here I will try to update this map each day but you have the link so you can access the dashboard and get a wide variety of forecasts.
I mostly rely on the reader to interpret world maps. For this map, areas of expected precipitation for the date and time shown are clearly shown.
The number of High-Pressure systems shown is called the Wave Number. Maybe I will discuss WN someday. But it shows how many Rossby Waves there are around the World. Sometimes they are hard to count. Counting Low-Pressure systems should provide the same WN. Rossby Waves are the way the temperature distribution of the Planet remains in balance. It is basically the science of fluid dynamics. It can be very helpful in predicting the movement of weather patterns.
Month to Date Information
(These images do not auto-update – I update them from time to time, but the links are there so just click on them)
Temperature
Precipitation
Month to date Temperature can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Month to date Precipitation can be found at https://hprcc.unl.e d u/products/maps/acis/MonthPNormUS.png
