Summary Of the Markets Today
- The Dow closed up 1.47% / +466,
- Nasdaq closed up 3.82%,
- S&P 500 closed up 2.39%,
- WTI crude oil settled at 110.30, up 3.45%
- USD $104.59 down 0.16%
- Gold 1809,03 down 0.36%,
- Bitcoin up 3.6% to $29,992,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.12% / 2.937%
- Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 13/MAY from 557 to 563
Today’s Economic Releases
The Philadelphia Fed’s Second Quarter 2022 Survey of Professional Forecasters now predicts the economic outlook is weaker. 2022 GDP annual growth is now forecast at 2.5% – down from the 3.7% forecast just three months ago.
Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys
|
REAL GDP (%) |
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%) |
PAYROLLS (000S/MONTH) |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PREVIOUS |
NEW |
PREVIOUS |
NEW |
PREVIOUS |
NEW |
||
Annual data (projections are based on annual-average levels): | |||||||
2022 |
3.7 |
2.5 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
430.9 |
479.7 |
|
2023 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
197.2 |
172.7 |
|
2024 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
N.A. |
N.A. |
|
2025 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
N.A. |
N.A. |
These same forecasters now forecast higher inflation. Can you believe that only three months ago – 2022 inflation was forecast the 3.8%?
Median Short-Run and Long-Run Projections for Inflation (Annualized Percentage Points)
|
HEADLINE CPI |
CORE CPI |
HEADLINE PCE |
CORE PCE |
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PREVIOUS |
CURRENT |
PREVIOUS |
CURRENT |
PREVIOUS |
CURRENT |
PREVIOUS |
CURRENT |
||
Quarterly | |||||||||
Q4/Q4 Annual Averages | |||||||||
2022 |
3.8 |
6.1 |
3.6 |
4.8 |
3.1 |
5.0 |
3.1 |
4.1 |
|
2023 |
2.4 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
|
2024 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
U.S. IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE INDEXES – APRIL 2022 – Year-over-year inflation moderated from 13.0% to 12.0%.
Student Debt Relief – A Philadelphia Fed Study found “most respondents without education debt preferred no, or relatively limited, cancellation of federal education debt (e.g., $10,000 or less per borrower). In comparison, those with education debt overwhelmingly (86 percent) preferred some debt relief. However, even among this group, there did not appear to be widespread support for canceling most or all education debt. A majority of respondents, with or without education debt, felt that any debt relief provided should be targeted.”
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Oil Prices Climb Despite Demand Destruction Claims
- Russia To Halt Electricity Exports To Finland On Saturday
- U.S. Rig Count Continues To Rise As WTI Hits $110
- Twitter CEO “Expects Deal To Close” After Musk Chaos
- Cryptocurrencies melt down in a ‘perfect storm’ of fear and panic
- Market Snapshot: Stocks trade sharply higher as S&P 500 fights off bear-market slide; Twitter drops after Musk tweet
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
The Market in Perspective
Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
Oil Prices Climb Despite Demand Destruction ClaimsDespite reports from the IEA and OPEC that emphasized a decline in oil demand, oil prices jumped on Friday due to fears of Europe implementing a Russian oil ban. Oilprice Alert: This week’s Global Energy Alert breaks down Russia’s latest strategy in Ukraine – namely its attempt to replicate its annexation of Crimea. Also, if you join Global Energy Alert today you will receive our 20-page research report ”5 Ways To Play The 2022 Oil BoomFriday, May 13th, 2022Falling demand has been the news of the week for oil markets, Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Climb-Despite-Demand-Destruction-Claims.html |
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Russia To Halt Electricity Exports To Finland On SaturdayFollowing Thursday’s report that Russia threatened to cut the flow of gas to Finland, Russia through its entity RAO, will suspend imports of electricity to Finland as of 1:00 a.m. on Saturday, May 14, Fingrid said on Friday in a statement on its website. The Finnish transmission system operator, Fingrid, claims that the security of Finland’s power supply is not under threat, with 10% of its electricity consumption imported from Russia. Reima Paivinen, Senior VP of Power System Operations at Fingrid, said that whatever electricity Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-To-Halt-Electricity-Exports-To-Finland-On-Saturday.html |
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European Drivers Face Further Gasoline SqueezeEuropean drivers who are already experiencing substantial pain at the pump are about to get even more unhappy as the market for naphtha, a key ingredient in gasoline, tightens amid EU sanctions on Russia. According to a Bloomberg report, as a result of the sanctions, exports of naphtha from Russia to Europe have shrunk considerably since the start of the year, while demand is expected to increase as summer season begins and petrochemical plants restart after seasonal maintenance. Ultimately, there is some risk from a Russian shortfall in Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/European-Drivers-Face-Further-Gasoline-Squeeze.html |
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Germany Moves To Expropriate Energy Firms In Case Of EmergencyThe lower house of the German Parliament approved a bill on Thursday that could allow the government to place energy firms under trusteeship if the security of supply in Germany is threatened. Europes largest economy, Germany, is a major buyer of Russian natural gas and oil and has been preparing for two months for the possibility that fossil fuel supplies from Russia could be disrupted either because of sanctions or retaliatory moves from Moscow to cut or cut off the supply of oil and/or natural gas. Now the German lawmakers Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Germany-Moves-To-Expropriate-Energy-Firms-In-Case-Of-Emergency.html |
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U.S. Rig Count Continues To Rise As WTI Hits $110The number of total active drilling rigs in the United States rose by 9 this week, on top of the 7 rig increase in the week prior, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday. The total rig count increased to 714 this week261 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2021 and the highest count since April 2020. Drilling has picked up substantially since the Russia invasion, adding 64 rigs within that timeframe. Oil rigs in the United States rose this week by 6 rigs to 563, while gas rigs rose by 3 to 149. Miscellaneous Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Rig-Count-Continues-To-Rise-As-WTI-Hits-110.html |
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Soaring Costs Set To Hurt U.S. Shale Production1. Soaring Production Costs Stoke Fears of US Shale Slowdown- Just as US shale producers were poised to capitalize on high crude prices and bring new production to the markets, Texas drillers have been confronted with soaring production costs. – According to Continental and Coterra, drilling and production costs in average shale plays were up by some 20%. It isn’t only that rigs and workers are in short supply, the doubling of fracking sand and diesel prices have also added to the inflationary pressure. – The lead time between order and delivery Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Soaring-Costs-Set-To-Hurt-US-Shale-Production.html |
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‘U.S. consumer is alive and well’ — Affirm CEO says market turbulence has no impact on businessAmericans are shopping and buying and “they’re paying their loans, at least to Affirm quite well,” Affirm’s Max Levchin said Thursday evening. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/13/us-consumer-is-alive-and-well-affirm-ceo-says-market-turbulence-has-no-impact-on-business.html |
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Leading House Democrat Bill Pascrell demands Biden replace IRS chief over tax document destruction ‘scandal’IRS boss Charles Rettig is under fire over the destruction of data related to millions of tax returns. President Joe Biden is being asked to replace him. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/13/joe-biden-asked-to-replace-irs-chief-charles-rettig-over-tax-document-destruction.html |
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Here’s why inflation may be less costly for some retireesAnnual inflation grew by 8.3% in April, but some retirees may be shielded from certain swelling costs, according to a J.P. Morgan report. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/13/heres-why-inflation-may-be-less-costly-for-some-retirees.html |
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IRS insists destruction of 30 million files of taxpayer data won’t affect payersFilers won’t be affected by the IRS decision to destroy 30 million so-called paper information returns, the agency said. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/13/irs-insists-destruction-of-taxpayer-data-wont-affect-payers-.html |
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Prices for NFL tickets are topping pre-Covid levels, secondary market vendor saysSeatGeek says NFL tickets on the secondary market are selling for more than they did before the Covid pandemic. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/13/prices-for-nfl-tickets-are-topping-pre-covid-levels-secondary-market-vendor-says.html |
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Buy now, pay later is not a boom, it’s a bubble, Harvard researcher saysSince the start of the coronavirus pandemic, installment payments have exploded in popularity along with a general surge in online shopping. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/13/buy-now-pay-later-is-not-a-boom-its-a-bubble-harvard-fellow-says-.html |
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United reaches new contract deal with pilots’ union, the first of the major airlines in pandemicUnited is the first major U.S. airline to reach an agreement with its pilots. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/13/united-airlines-pilots-union-reach-contract-agreement.html |
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Novavax confident Covid vaccine will receive FDA authorization in June after delaysIf the FDA committee endorses Novavax’s shot, the drug regulator is almost certain to rapidly authorize it for use in the U.S. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/13/novavax-confident-covid-vaccine-will-receive-fda-authorization-in-june-after-delays.html |
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With floods and electricity shortages, South Africa’s economy is threatening to go into reverseSouth Africa’s economy picked up momentum in the first quarter of the year, but flooding in a key province and power cuts are putting the brakes on its recovery. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/13/floods-and-electricity-shortages-south-africas-economy-threatening-downturn.html |
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Cramer’s lightning round: I’m going to pass on Harley-Davidson“Mad Money” host Jim Cramer rings the lightning round bell, which means he’s giving his answers to callers’ stock questions at rapid speed. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/cramers-lightning-round-im-going-to-pass-on-harley-davidson.html |
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Want to travel to space? In 2024, balloons might take you part of the way thereSpace tourism companies such as Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic and SpaceX rely on rockets. Others plan to use balloons to take travelers into the stratosphere. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/13/space-tourism-firms-plan-to-use-balloons-to-go-to-space-in-2024.html |
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“Terrible Week” Ends With Strong Dead Cat Bounce As Bear Market Marches On“Terrible Week” Ends With Strong Dead Cat Bounce As Bear Market Marches On Wall Street is ready to close the books on yet another ugly, chaotic week, the sixth week in a row that has seen the S&P slide – in fact, the S&P has seen weekly gains in just 4 of the past 14 weeks. Granted today’s relief rally means that we narrowly avoided the worst week for stocks since Jan 21, but it was touch and go there for a whil … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/terrible-week-ends-strong-dead-cat-bounce-bear-market-marches |
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Superyacht Owned By Russian Billionaire ‘Goes Dark’ In CaribbeanSuperyacht Owned By Russian Billionaire ‘Goes Dark’ In CaribbeanA superyacht owned by Russia’s second-richest citizen, whose oil/gas company has been a target of Western sanctions, has gone dark in the Caribbean. According to Bloomberg data, the 85-meter (279 feet) long Pacific, owned by Leonid Mikhelson, turned off its automatic identification system, or AIS, in the Caribbean Sea on May 8. Pacific’s true destination is unknown. There aren’t many countries in the Caribbean that are friendly to Russians except for Cuba or Venezuela.
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Twitter CEO “Expects Deal To Close” After Musk ChaosTwitter CEO “Expects Deal To Close” After Musk ChaosUpdate (1550ET): Late in the US cash session, Twitter shares have recovered some losses after tumbling as much as 21% in premarket after growing speculation that Elon Musk might walk away from the deal to purchase the social media company. Musk later clarified that the deal saga isn’t over yet and he’s “still committed to the acquisition.” At 1515 ET, shares are down 9.5% around the $40.80 mark. At 1510 ET, Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal tweeted a series of updates about what had happened over the past weeks.
He said the short answer is very clear:
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Diesel Rationing Could Hit East Coast This Summer, Refinery Owner SaysDiesel Rationing Could Hit East Coast This Summer, Refinery Owner SaysBy Alyssa Sporrer of FreightWaves, The East Coast of the U.S. could face a worsening diesel shortage this summer, John Catsimatidis, CEO of United Refining Co., said in an interview with Bloomberg. United produces some 70,000 barrels of petroleum products each day and sells gasoline throughout western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania, according to the company’s website.
Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/diesel-rationing-could-hit-east-coast-summer-refinery-owner-says |
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Elon Musk puts Twitter deal on hold over fake account detailsThe billionaire wants more data on fake accounts, prompting speculation over the deal’s future. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61433724?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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Ethnic pay gap: MPs criticise government’s ‘lack of care’A government decision not to extend pay gap reporting to racial disparities has been criticised by MPs. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61443538?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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Drivers cut back on journeys as fuel costs biteOne UK petrol station operator tells the BBC motorists are making fuel “last a little bit longer”. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61433722?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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Cryptocurrencies melt down in a ‘perfect storm’ of fear and panicCryptocurrency prices reached a peak late last year and have since slid as fears over the economy grew. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/cryptocurrencies-melt-down-in-a-perfect-storm-of-fear-and-panic/articleshow/91542324.cms |
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Market movers: Matrimony shares spike 15%; Patel Engineering gets big orderPatel Engineering announced that it has bagged a Rs 2,461 crore contract for the works of “construction of diversion tunnel, concrete gravity dam, intake, pressure shafts, underground Power House & Tailrace Tunnel (Lot 1) for Kwar HE Projects in District Kishtwar, Jammu & Kashmir. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/market-movers-matrimony-shares-spike-15-patel-engineering-gets-big-order/articleshow/91545795.cms |
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Tech View: Bulls lack strength; Nifty may break below 15,670 next weekNifty50 gave up around 300 points from the intraday high of 16,083, which hints at a lack of conviction on the part of bulls about the sustainability of upmove at higher levels, said Mazhar Mohammad of Chartviewindia.in. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/tech-view-bulls-lack-strength-nifty-may-break-below-15670-next-week/articleshow/91542959.cms |
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Bond Report: 2- and 10-year Treasury yields post biggest weekly declines since March to end a week of choppy tradeTreasury yields bounced back on Friday, though fell short of finishing the week higher, as traders closed out a choppy week. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C05575-04D4-B545-7D3F-760123EAE47E%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
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Market Snapshot: Stocks trade sharply higher as S&P 500 fights off bear-market slide; Twitter drops after Musk tweetU.S. stocks trade sharply higher Friday afternoon, bouncing at the end of a volatile week. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C05575-04D4-B545-7D3E-72310F85AF49%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
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Crypto: Here’s how much money you would’ve lost if you bought crypto during Matt Damon’s ‘Fortune Favors the Brave’ commercialThe Matt Damon ‘Fortune Favors the Brave” commercial has been viewed over 28 million times on Twitter and YouTube Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C05575-04D4-B545-7D30-A1212DF746B6%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |