Headlines:
Oil Prices Fall As Russia’s Energy Industry Avoids Sanctions.
U.S. Rig Count Gains For 18th Straight Week.
Delta Cuts Aeroflot Ties As Fallout From Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine Spreads In Air Travel.
Credit Suisse Rats On Morgan Stanley & Goldman In Federal “Block Trading” Probe
Russia-Ukraine U.S. Stock-Market Bounce Shows Investors Care ‘Not About War But Sanctions,’ Analyst Says.
Wall Street opened like a charging bull galloping head first towards the Matador, climbing nearly 800 points before rounding and closing at or near session highs. However, Wells Fargo’s Paul Christopher is warning that there is still “too much uncertainty” out there. The past two sessions could be an easy relief rally that will sour the “bulls milk.” Barron’s reported today that “more pain awaits U.S. stocks and consumers—and the fed can’t do much about it.”
WTI crude has surged to more than $100 bbl for the first time since 2014, settling today at 92.01. Oil futures have gained about 1.5% since the Russian/Ukraine developments began. Gold hit a high of 1922 earlier as Bitcoin remained in the trading range of 38000, settling at 39100. Dogecoin is still trending down for the week now at $0.1256.
The bad news is that Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM JAN fell to 1.6% from 2.7%. More bad news is the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final FEB also fell to 62.8 from 67.2. Financial reporting this morning is just so-so and needs to improve if we continue any bull rally. Therefore, I have reserved feelings about this bull run. In addition, today’s green volume was half of yesterday’s trading, indicating many traders are not on board this “two-day rally train.”
Ukraine supplies one-third of the world’s wheat and wheat prices by more than 20%, hitting their highest levels in nearly 14 years, while corn costs have climbed 15% YTD. That didn’t stop prices from skyrocketing on Thursday.
As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.
The Market in Perspective
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As Many As 4 Million Ukrainians Could Flee To EU CountriesThe United Nations is preparing for up to 4 million refugees from Ukraine if Russia’s war against the country continues to escalate. At least 100,000 people have been uprooted in Ukraine after fleeing their homes following the Russian invasion, while several thousand have already crossed into neighboring countries including Moldova, Romania, and Poland, UN refugee agency spokesperson Shabia Mantoo told a briefing in Geneva on February 25. The UN agency said it stands ready to provide assistance to Ukrainians seeking to escape. UN human rights office Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/As-Many-As-4-Million-Ukrainians-Could-Flee-To-EU-Countries.html |
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Oil Prices Fall As Russia’s Energy Industry Avoids SanctionsRussia’s invasion of Ukraine on Thursday shocked the world and sent oil prices soaring above $100, the relatively tepid reaction of Western leaders has brought oil prices back down on Friday as it becomes clear that Russia’s energy industry is unlikely to be sanctioned.Oilprice Alert: To read what Oilprice.com’s geopolitical and trading experts have to say about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, make sure you sign up for Global Energy Alert and read this week’s communique in the Members Section.Friday, February 25th, 2022One might think that Russias Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Fall-As-Russias-Energy-Industry-Avoids-Sanctions.html |
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Surging Energy Prices Could Derail China’s Coal PoliciesThe rally in energy commodities following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could derail Chinese plans for using the guiding of the price of coal, which is still a major source of power generation in the country. The recent policy of Chinese authorities to establish a more direct correlation between coal prices and electricity rates could be upset by the jump in energy commodity prices, including coal prices. This, in turn, could slow China’s economic growth, Bloomberg reported on Friday. On Thursday, Australian thermal coal, a benchmark for the fuel Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Surging-Energy-Prices-Could-Derail-Chinas-Coal-Policies.html |
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OPEC+ Unlikely To Change Course On Output Despite $100 Oil, Ukraine CrisisDespite $100 oil and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the OPEC+ alliance is set to rubberstamp another 400,000 bpd increase in monthly production targets next week, several OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Friday. Russia and OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia lead the OPEC+ group, which has been managing supply to the market since the beginning of 2017 and survived the 2020 crash in demand and a month-long rift over market share between OPEC’s Saudi Arabia and the leader of the non-OPEC group in the pact, Russia. Several OPEC members are also U.S. Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Unlikely-To-Change-Course-On-Output-Despite-100-Oil-Ukraine-Crisis.html |
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Sanctions Or Not, Russian Crude Is Getting HitSanctions on Russian banks and oligarchs have not halted Russian oil exports, with Indian refiners scooping up highly discounted Urals crude at a record pace, but Western buyers are hitting roadblocks with payments, shipping and banking guarantees, even though sanctions arent targeting the energy specifically. On Thursday, Russian Urals crude was going for $11.60 per barrel below Dated Brent, representing the biggest discount in over a decade, based on Bloomberg data. Reuters reports that while Russia has maintained its crude oil and Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Sanctions-Or-Not-Russian-Crude-Is-Getting-Hit.html |
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U.S. Rig Count Gains For 18th Straight WeekThe number of active drilling rigs in the United States rose by 5 this weekthe 18th straight weekly increase to the number of oil and gas rigs in the United States. The total rig count now has now reached 650, as the world watches for any signs of increased output from the United States that would allow a weaning off from Russian oilat least in part. Baker Hughes reported this week that the total active rig figureoil, gas, and miscellaneousis 248 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2021. Oil-directed rigs rose Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Rig-Count-Gains-For-18th-Straight-Week.html |
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For Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway, the big issues haven’t changedAs Warren Buffett’s latest Berkshire Hathaway annual letter to investors is issued amid a volatile market, the big issues for the company haven’t changed. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/for-warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-the-big-issues-havent-changed.html |
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What the blockbuster Microsoft and Sony deals mean for the future of gamingMicrosoft and Sony just shelled out tens of billions of dollars in deals that could shake up the video game industry in a big way. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/what-the-blockbuster-microsoft-and-sony-deals-mean-for-the-future-of-gaming.html |
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Low earners were hit hardest by inflation as savings and pandemic aid dwindle, study findsHigher living costs were triple the wage growth of the lowest-income workers, according to a new study. Meanwhile, their cash buffer is getting depleted. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/low-earners-hit-hardest-by-inflation-as-savings-and-pandemic-aid-dwindle.html |
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Meet the company that offers its contract workers benefits and job securityRetaining talent is top of mind for employers during the Great Reshuffle. For Unilever, it’s U-Work program does just that. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/this-company-offers-its-contract-workers-benefits-and-job-security.html |
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Delta cuts Aeroflot ties as fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spreads in air travelDelta and Aeroflot are members of the SkyTeam airline alliance. Their partnership allows customers to book seats on each other’s flights. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/delta-air-lines-cuts-ties-with-aeroflot-after-russia-attacks-ukraine.html |
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U.S. space partnerships with Russia face ‘greatest challenge’ with Ukraine invasion, executive saysThe U.S. and Russia have long been partners through the International Space Station. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/nasa-and-space-partnerships-with-russia-face-ukraine-challenge.html |
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Renault, Hyundai and VW have most exposure to Russian car marketRenault Group accounts for 39.5% of the country’s vehicle production, followed by South Korea-based Hyundai Group at 27.2%, according to IHS Markit. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/renault-hyundai-and-vw-have-most-exposure-to-russian-car-market.html |
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Omicron BA.2 subvariant is more contagious and can reinfect people, but isn’t more severe, studies findA pandemic-weary public wants to know two main things: Will BA.2 cause a second surge of cases, and will it put even more people in the hospital? Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/covid-transmissibility-severity-reinfection-of-omicron-bapoint2-subvariant.html |
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Disney’s Star Wars Galactic Starcruiser is worth the price tag, if you’re willing to let loose and playCNBC ventured aboard the Halcyon for a preview of Disney’s new Galactic Starcruiser theme park attraction. The hefty price tag is worth it for the experience. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/disneys-star-wars-galactic-starcruiser-review-let-loose-and-play.html |
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5 things to know before the stock market opens FridayU.S. stock futures rose Friday, erasing earlier losses as investors continued to assess the risks stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-friday-february-25.html |
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Foot Locker shares sink after retailer says 2022 sales will fall as it expects to sell fewer Nike productsFoot Locker shares are tumbling after the retailer forecast revenue to drop in 2022. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/foot-locker-fl-reports-q4-2021-earnings.html |
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Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Foot Locker, Cinemark, Dell and othersThese are the stocks posting the largest moves before the bell. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-premarket-foot-locker-cinemark-dell-and-others.html |
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Credit Suisse Rats On Morgan Stanley & Goldman In Federal “Block Trading” ProbeCredit Suisse Rats On Morgan Stanley & Goldman In Federal “Block Trading” ProbeLast night, we reported that for the first time, Morgan Stanley acknowledged its involvement in the SEC/DoJ “block trading” investigation that has been discussed in the financial press these past few weeks.
But while Morgan Stanley looks set to take the fall for whatever misbehavior federal prosecutors manage to uncover, it looks like an interloper – Swiss giant Credit Suisse, which has been bogged down by plenty of its own legal issues as of lately – is reportedly trying to help the Feds build a case. We’re sure their rivals appreciate it.
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Geopolitics And DegrowthGeopolitics And DegrowthAuthored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, The Geopolitics of Degrowth holds that real power flows not from waste, centralization and coercion but from decentralization, relocalization and the free flow of value.
Conventional geopolitics is all about more: more military power, more sanctions, more coercion, more influence. The Geopolitics of Degrowth is all about the the power of less: wasting less, consuming less, needing less from other nations, reducing dependence on rivals, reducing coercion and centralized over-reach. Conventional geopolitics concentrates wealth and political power in a giant dam on the biggest river. Centralized control of massed power is considered the acme of geopolitical strength. Everyone is coerced into funding and relying on the dam. But this has it backwards: when the centralized dam bursts, the n … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/geopolitics-and-degrowth |
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SEC Proposes New Disclosure Rules For Short Sellers Targeting StocksSEC Proposes New Disclosure Rules For Short Sellers Targeting StocksLittle more than a week after the first reports of a raid at the offices of one prominent short-seller, the SEC on Friday has suddenly announced two new regulations that firms managing money in the US will now be duty-bound to follow, or risk the threat of criminal reprisal. The new rules will broaden the data that short-sellers will be required to report to the SEC. Bloomberg said the new rules are the latest concoction dreamed up by SEC Chairman Gary Gensler to boost transparency and accountability across the financial markets. The new rules will collect more data from both large hedge funds and the megabank brokers who service them. According to Reuters, the SEC hopes these new rules will boost “transparency” by allowing the agency to gather more data on short-selling, some of which it will publish. Perhaps the most important new rule is that short-sellers will now be required to report their positions monthly as if they were long positions. Institutional managers are required to submit data on their long positions on a quarterly basis. Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sec-proposes-new-disclosure-rules-short-sellers-targeting-stocks |
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“Greedy” Corporations Are Causing Inflation… Or Are They?“Greedy” Corporations Are Causing Inflation… Or Are They?Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com, Greedy corporations are causing inflation by jacking up prices and enjoying record profits. This has become an increasingly popular talking point on the political left. Elizabeth Warren has pushed this narrative hard.
And it’s patently absurd. One simply has to reason through the claim to uncover the absurdity. If corporations can willy-nilly raise prices and enjoy “excessive” profits, why don’t they do it all the time? Did corporations suddenly get greedy in 2021? And why did the Federal Reserve spend a decade fretting about inflation being “too low” as it struggled to hit its 2% target? Was there not enough corporate greed before coronavirus? It’s pretty clear there has to be something else going on. But corporate greed is a convenient explanation, and the narrat … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/greedy-corporations-are-causing-inflation-or-are-they |
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Russia bans British airlines from its airspaceRussia says the move is a response to the UK’s ‘unfriendly’ decision to ban Aeroflot from the UK. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60505417?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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Ukraine conflict: BP under pressure to sell stake in Russian firmThe oil giant’s boss is warned of UK government concerns about its “overexposure to Russian interests”. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60526891?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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Fears of UK food and fuel prices rising due to warEconomists say the rate at which prices rise in the UK could reach 8%, the highest level in 30 years. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60526890?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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Cabinet likely to consider proposal for FDI in IPO-bound LIC on SaturdayAccording to the current FDI policy, 74 per cent foreign investment is permitted under the automatic route in the insurance sector. However, these rules do not apply to the Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), which is administered through a separate LIC Act. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/ipos/fpos/cabinet-likely-to-consider-proposal-for-fdi-in-ipo-bound-lic-on-saturday/articleshow/89833477.cms |
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Nilesh Shah on how D-Street crash could alter India’s growth story“In the near term, news on war will continue to impact our market. But our fundamental story is intact. Of course, it gets adversely impacted by higher energy prices. We import about 4 million barrels of oil a day. A $10 price increase is $40 million outflow from our pocket. But our long-term story remains intact. Elevated energy prices create a dent which we can afford.” Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/india-will-now-get-more-attention-from-global-investors-nilesh-shah/articleshow/89822748.cms |
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Tech view: 16,550 levels crucial for Nifty; wait for clarity before making a move, say analystsRupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said going forward, the recovery may continue as long as 16,550 is held decisively. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/tech-view-16550-levels-crucial-for-nifty-wait-for-clarity-before-making-a-move-say-analysts/articleshow/89828813.cms |
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In One Chart: Russia-Ukraine: U.S. stock-market bounce shows investors care ‘not about war but sanctions,’ analyst saysU.S. stocks are shrugging off the biggest European military conflict since World War II. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C05575-04D4-B545-79C8-C33CE1116374%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
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Market Snapshot: Dow surges more than 700 points and aims for best day in over a year as angst over Russia attack on Ukraine gives way to buyingU.S. stock benchmarks trade sharply higher Friday afternoon, as reports indicate that Russia was in favor of talks with Ukraine. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C05575-04D4-B545-79BE-4E936FD3169D%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
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Key Words: Ketanji Brown Jackson ‘truly humbled’ to be nominated for Stephen Breyer’s Supreme Court seat — and says she ‘could never fill’ his shoesU.S. Circuit Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson introduced herself to the world with some ‘brief remarks’ at the White House on Friday Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C05575-04D4-B545-79CC-FFE0030B31FA%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
