Introduction

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued their Seasonal Outlook which extends slightly more than a year so I call it a four-season outlook. It also includes what NOAA calls their Early Outlook for the following month which is March and a drought Outlook for the next three months. The maps show where temperature and precipitation will deviate from normal as the existing La Nina weakens and the weather pattern reverts to normal as adjusted to take into account what NOAA calls decadal trends. I include the full NOAA Discussion which supports their predictions. There is no guarantee that the future will unfold exactly as projected by NOAA but having this information which represents both a near-term and fairly long-term Outlook can be very useful.

Combination Early Outlook for March and the Three-Month Outlook.

I am going to start with a graphic that shows both the Early Outlook for March and also the three-month Outlook MAM 2022. So you get the full picture in one graphic. It is important to remember that what is shown in these maps is the projected deviation from what is considered the Climate normals (which I refer to in this article as Normal) which is the average of conditions during the past three decades meaning 1991 through 2020. The maps are easy to read. For both temperature and precipitation what is shown is the probability of each of these two important components of weather being above or below Normal. Normal varies by location and time of the year. As an example, the map in the upper left of this graphic shows where it will be cooler or warmer than what one would expect in the month of March. It also shows the probability that this will be the case. It is not unreasonable to correlate the probability to be different from Normal with the extent that it might differ from Normal but that may not always be the case. The use of the term “Outlook” versus “Forecast” may be confusing but the above describes what NOAA calls an “Outlook”. A really good explanation can be found at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/decision-makers-toolbox/weather-forecasts-versus-climate-outlooks-whats-difference The use of the “Outlook” approach is probably unfamiliar to many people and to prepare the “Outlook” NOAA (actually the Climate Prediction Center within NOAA) has to make predictions. So I sometimes incorrectly use the word “Forecast” in my articles about the “Outlook”. Both a “Forecast” and “Outlook” are a prediction of the future with the information presented in a different way. Clear as mud, right? Not too worry, there is no quiz at the end of this article.

The top row is what NOAA refers to as the “Early Outlook” for March which will be updated at the end of February. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month Outlook that includes March.

Of interest is the similarity between March Outlook and the three month Outlook. The probabilities shown for March are higher than the probabilities shown for the three-month period. That is partially because the first month is easier to predict that the three months. But there are certain aspects of the expected pattern that add to NOAA’s confidence with respect to the March Outlook. One which is discussed in the NOAA discussion is the PNA pattern which they believe will be PNA-. This is explained in the following graphic.

Notice that with a negative PNA (PNA-) storms that approach the U.S. from the Pacific Ocean are likely to dip to the south along the West Coast or the Great Basin rather than farther to the east. I am curious as to why the Southwest would be dry with a negative PNA but notice the subtle difference between the March Outlook and the Outlook for the three-month period. The Southwest dry anomaly does not extend as far to the west in March.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is also thought to be a factor in March. If you want to dig deeper into that, here are two links that would be useful: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ and https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/ but it is probably better to start here. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml The MJO is not easy to deal with.

A positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also expected. This simply means that the air pressure differential in the North Atlantic prevents cold air from moving south. It is more complicated than that especially for Europe. But the impacts for the US Northeast are pretty straightforward.

Taken together, NOAA had a lot of familiar patterns to work with in terms of March and the first three-month period. Thus they have a fairly high level of confidence in that part of the Seasonal Outlook.

Drought Outlook

NOAA also issues a drought Outlook which is tied to the precipitation and temperature Outlooks plus the initial conditions. That means if the ground is wet it takes a change to move it to drought and if the ground is dry it takes a change to move it out of drought.

The yellow is the bad news. And this is a three-month Outlook plus the remainder of February. There is more yellow than sand color. Notice the increase in drought in Florida and along the Atlantic Coast.

Looking out Four-Seasons.

Here are the twelve three-month Temperature maps beyond the first three-month period which is shown earlier in this report.

Notice that this presentation starts with April/May/June (AMJ) since MAM is considered the near-term. So on the first row you have AMJ followed by MJJ followed by JJA. Then when you drop down to the second row you have from left to right JAS, ASO, SON and on the next row, OND, NDJ, DJF as you move into 2023. And then on the bottom row you have JFM , FMA and MAJ 2023.

You can see the changes over time. The big changes take place starting in JJA 2022 and this becomes very noticeable in NDJ 2022/2023 which is a while out. Remember that the dynamical/numerical models are only used for a couple of months and then they switch over to statistical models. In the short term, current conditions have a big impact on the Outlook. But because these models are not perfect at some point past history becomes more reliable. So long-term trends and the project status of ENSO and perhaps some other factors that lend themselves to statistical analysis is what you see beyond a couple of months in this four-season Outlook.

There are some differences between the Outlook this month and last month. I am not showing the Outlook issued by NOAA last month simply to avoid having this article run too long. Every little change in the ENSO forecast has impacts on the details of the Seasonal Outlook.

Here are the twelve three-month Precipitation maps beyond the first three-month period which is shown earlier in this report.

You can see the changes over time. The big changes take place starting in MJJ 2022 and there is another big change in OND 2022 which is a while out and another big change in JFM 2023. Remember that the dynamical/numerical models are only used for a couple of months and then they switch over to statistical models. In the short term, current conditions have a big impact on the Outlook. But because these models are not perfect at some point past history becomes more reliable. So long-term trends and the project status of ENSO and perhaps some other factors that lend themselves to statistical analysis is what you see beyond a couple of months in this four-season Outlook.

North American Monsoon (NAM)

As we leave winter the expectations for the North American Monsoon become import. Although Arizona and New Mexico are most impacted, the NAM Impacts extreme Southern California and states north of Arizona and New Mexico and parts of Texas. There is relationship between the impact of the NAM and weather in the Great Plains. That relations might go in both directions depending on what month we are talking about. It is reasonable to believe that the amount of moisture that enters the U.S. as a result of the NAM impacts additional states.

If you look at the JJA and JAS precipitation outlooks shown above it seems that NOAA is predicting an average Monsoon and that the impact will not extend very far north. I like to compare the NOAA outlook with the forecast prepared by a somewhat comparable but much smaller research entity in Japan named JAMSTEC. Below is their forecast for JJA. I would prefer to use a JAS forecast but JAMSTEC only provides me with forecasts by meteorological seasons and nearby months. But JJA includes July and August which is the peak of the Monsoon.

So there is disagreement between NOAA and JAMSTEC on this coming Monsoon Season. The NAM is really the extension of the Mexican (Sonoran) Monsoon into the U.S. JAMSTEC is showing that for Mexico there with be an average Monsoon except for the wester part of Mexico and the Baja Pininsula. I am just guessing but I am thinking that JAMSTEC is predicting tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific that does not always head west out to sea but which to some extent head north of the West Coast of Mexico and perhaps even head inland thus providing addition moisture in that area.

NOAA Discussion

Maps tell a story but to really understand what is going you need to read the discussion. I combine the 30-day discussion with the long-term discussion and rearrange it a bit and add a few additional titles (where they are not all caps the titles are my additions). I will use bold type to highlight certain things that I feel are important. My comments if any are enclosed in brackets [ ].

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS

La Niña conditions persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, as indicated by current oceanic and atmospheric observations. In January 2022, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the latest Niño 3.4 SST temperature anomaly around -0.7 degrees C. Suppressed convection was evident in positive outgoing longwave radiation anomalies near the Date Line. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies have shifted eastward to around 110 degrees W longitude but remain at depth, while negative anomalies have contracted to the eastern Pacific. Low-level easterlies are mostly near average strength, while easterly wind anomalies were observed over parts of the western and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Upper-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña conditions. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is positive and forecast to remain positive into the beginning of March, increasing the chances of above normal temperatures over the eastern CONUS early in the season.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS

The CPC SST consolidation for the Niño 3.4 region indicates that negative SST anomalies are likely to remain below -0.5 degrees C through MAM and then near-average from the late spring through the summer and autumn of 2022. The North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) mean forecast for the Niño-3.4 SST anomaly indicates a slightly slower weakening of negative SST anomalies to near -0.5 degrees C during the next six months. The official CPC/IRI ENSO outlook is for La Niña to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (77% chance during MAM 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance during MJJ 2022).

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MARCH 2022

The March 2022 outlooks are issued against the backdrop of an ongoing double-dip La Niña and an emerging Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. The Niño 3.4 index for the period November-December-January 2021-22 stood at -1.0 degrees Celsius, which is similar in magnitude to that observed during the 2020-21 winter season. Meanwhile, the magnitude of the Real-time Multivariate (RMM) based MJO index has increased during early February, with an enhancement of the intraseasonal signal noted across the Indian Ocean. Natural analog composites derived from the current El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and MJO states depict a 500-hPa flow pattern for the month of March consistent with the negative phase of the Pacific / North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. These composites indicate anomalous ridging over the Aleutians and adjacent areas of the North Pacific, troughing across the northwestern CONUS, and expansive ridging across most of the eastern and south-central CONUS. Dynamical guidance from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) show very good agreement with the natural ENSO/MJO analogs in forecasting a negative PNA-like pattern for the month of March. This excellent consistency between dynamical and statistical guidance leads to higher than normal confidence in the March 2022 outlooks.

Statistical and dynamical guidance are in good agreement in favoring above normal temperatures across most of the eastern and central CONUS. Probabilities of above normal temperatures exceed 60 percent for parts of the Southern Plains, where warm signals from dynamical model guidance are the strongest. High probabilities of above normal temperatures (greater than 50 percent) extend eastward to most of the Eastern Seaboard and northward to the eastern Great Lakes region, where MJO composites depict a strong warm signal. Conversely, below normal temperatures are favored for the northwestern CONUS and southeastern Alaska, consistent with the negative phase of the PNA. Below normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) also played a role in tilting the odds toward below normal temperatures across much of the south coast of Alaska.`[We are probably in PDO- conditions which have prevailed for some time].

ENSO natural analogs and dynamical model guidance are in good agreement in depicting a wet signal for much of the east-central CONUS stretching from the Great Lakes region southward across the Ohio and Middle Mississippi valleys. MJO composites as well as multi-model guidance from the C3S also support a westward expansion of the wet signal, to include much of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Probabilities of above normal precipitation are greater than 50 percent from southern Michigan to western areas of the Ohio Valley, where ENSO composites and C3S guidance depict the strongest wet signals . Conversely, below normal precipitation is favored from the Southwest to the Central Plains as well as for much of the Southeast, typical of La Niña conditions. ENSO composites and dynamical model guidance generally support above normal precipitation for the northwestern CONUS. However, uncertainty is high across the West Coast, as MJO Composites favor a wetter solution farther to the south across southern California and a drier solution for the Pacific Northwest, in opposition to dynamical model guidance. The official March outlook depicts slightly elevated odds of above normal precipitation for the northwestern CONUS, consistent with the majority of dynamical model solutions. Equal chances of above, near, and below normal precipitation are indicated farther to the south across Southern California, where dynamical and statistical guidance conflict. ENSO/MJO composites depict enhanced westerly or southwesterly flow across western Mainland Alaska, suggestive of an active pattern. Therefore, above normal precipitation is favored for much of western Alaska, with support from C3S guidance. Statistical and dynamical model guidance are in good agreement in depicting a dry solution downstream across southeastern Alaska, where below normal precipitation is favored.

SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS (Focus on MAM 2022)

Temperature

The March-April-May (MAM) 2022 temperature outlook favors above normal seasonal mean temperatures from the Southwest, across the Central and Southern Plains, to most of the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. The largest probabilities, exceeding 60 percent, for above normal temperatures are forecast across the Rio Grande Valley. Probabilities of below normal temperatures are elevated for parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and southeastern Alaska.

Precipitation

The MAM 2022 precipitation outlook favors below normal seasonal precipitation amounts from southern California and the Southwest to western areas of the central and southern Great Plains, and along the Gulf Coast into the Atlantic Coast of the Southeast. Below normal precipitation is favored for coastal southern Mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle. Above normal seasonal precipitation amounts are likely for parts of the Midwest, the northern Rockies, the Pacific Northwest, and much of northern and western Mainland Alaska. Equal chances (EC) are forecast for areas where seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal accumulated precipitation amounts are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities.

BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS

PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS

Dynamical model guidance such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Calibration, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM) version of the NMME were used through lead 5. La Niña temperature and precipitation composites and regressions based on Niño 3.4 SST anomalies were primarily relied upon for MAM and AMJ 2022. The consolidation tool, which includes both the NMME and various statistical tools as inputs, was also used, especially after the predicted transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by early summer. At longer leads, from 6 to 13 months (ASO 2022 to MAM 2023), decadal trends represented by the optimum climate normals (OCN) were a significant driver of the climate outlooks. [This shows the phasing in of different tools as the forecast progressed from the transition from La Nina to ENSO Neutral and beyond to where the ENSO state is difficult to predict at this point in time.]

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS – MAM 2022 TO MAM 2023

TEMPERATURE

Only minor adjustments were made to the previous temperature outlooks, released in January 2021, {I disagree] as La Niña continues to be the major driver of the predicted climate during MAM 2022, and a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected thereafter. Below normal temperatures are favored for the Pacific Northwest across parts of the Northern Rockies, consistent with current dynamical model guidance and La Niña conditions. Probabilities of above normal temperatures were increased across the Rio Grande Valley, with increased confidence of a continuing La Niña into MAM and AMJ 2022. The probabilities for above normal temperatures were increased for parts of the Northern Plains from MAM 2022 through the first several leads into autumn, supported by the NMME dynamical model forecasts, and with snow cover and soil moisture deficits over some areas impacting the MAM 2022 outlook. While the NMME dynamical model guidance favors more extensive below normal temperatures across much of Mainland Alaska, statistical tools and the CBaM tool favors more extensive above normal temperatures over central and northern Alaska. The area of enhanced probabilities of below normal temperatures is confined to southeastern Mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle in the outlooks for MAM and AMJ 2022. As the leads progress through spring into summer and longer leads, above normal temperatures are favored over a greater area of Mainland Alaska related to decadal trends , as well as across much of the CONUS, especially during the summer seasons.

PRECIPITATION

The precipitation outlook for MAM 2022 is consistent with canonical La Niña impacts and recent model guidance. The probabilities for below normal precipitation were increased across much of the West from AMJ through JAS 2022, consistent with NMME forecasts and the consolidation tool. Areas of enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation over parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic regions and for western Mainland Alaska from AMJ 2022 through ASO 2022 are consistent with current model guidance from the NMME and with the consolidation tool. At longer leads, the precipitation outlooks generally rely on the decadal trends and guidance from the consolidation of statistical tools. Below normal precipitation is favored over substantial areas of the western CONUS from autumn through next winter, while above normal precipitation is favored for some regions of the central and eastern CONUS at longer leads, related to decadal timescale trends . Decadal timescale trends favor below normal precipitation for the southern Alaska Panhandle through all leads.

Resources

All the maps should transmit but if not, I am providing the links. Also the links may lead to larger images for those who would find that to be helpful.

You can also find these maps individually on the CPC.NCEP Main Page. You can get to a lot of places from there but to make it easy here is the monthly discussion and here is the long-term discussion which includes the state of the Atmosphere. I have shown it in the text later in this email.

The image showing the Early Outlook for March and the three-month forecast can be obtained by Clicking Here.

All of the three-month maps and the graphic that shows all twelve of them can be found here. It goes out to Mar-Apr-May 2023. I like this graphic as you can see the forecast change in the pattern as La Nina comes and goes plus factoring in the seasonal trends.

The link for the drought forecast map and some discussions that come with the map can be found by clicking HERE.

Review of January Climate

As we transition from one state of ENSO it might be useful to also look at what took place in the prior month. NOAA provides a report on the Climate of the prior month. John Bateman sends out an email that summarizes the report and I am quoting from it below and using one of the graphics from his email and two graphics from the full report.

Let’s get started. Here is how John Bateman starts his email.

Then he presents this graphic:

These are the events in January that NOAA thought were especially noteworthy. I am not going to comment on them because John Bateman does that below, at least for some of them.

Details regarding weather anomalies

So let us see what he has to say. In two places where he typed the date, there is a blank space but that is not missing data just a blank space that got introduced somehow.

The Bering Sea Ice information is interesting. What made the Bering Sea Ice expand?

Temperature rankings by state

The above shows the ranking of each state in the 128-year history which is considered to be the most reliable part of our data. No state had record temperatures. One state was much above average and there were eight states above average. I hope I have this right that seventeen states were below average. So how does that result in a slightly above average temperature for January? Notice that the warm states are larger than the cool states. That is one of the reasons I used this map.

Precipitation rankings by state

So how do the above bullet points translate into a dry year? Let’s take a look.

The above shows the ranking of each state in the 128-year history which is considered to be the most reliable part of our data. No state had record dryness but two states had the second driest year in their history and one had the third driest year. There are seven states with above-average wetness. White is near average and yellow, tan, and dark brown are below, much below, or record dry. So there are far more states in those categories than blue, green, and black. I have not counted all the states that were below average but there are only seven states above average or wetter. Actually, there are no states much above average or record wetness.

This simply supports the bullet points above the graphic that this was a very dry January.

NOAA Updates their Four-Season Outlook on February 17, 2022